This is my going theory. It might be very emotional for the offended nation, so i apologize for that beforehand. It is just mean to clarify the real reason behind the conflict.


It is a conflict of values, that goes back centuries. Ukraine fights for independence, although there are some russia sympathizers there, as there are some ukraine sympathizers in russia. Russia invades ukraine to filter out the men that lives there, as to stem their heritage and implement furthering of russian ideals and values, since they believe they owned the country in the first place. There have been headlines that russia has started education of russian language in overtaken cities.

We are served newslines that ukraine are re-taking cities. But is this really what is happening? My theory is that now, they have driven out or captured most of the men, so now they pull out and -let- the ukraine military re-take the cities back. Even if they say russians have left military equipment, they are not going to waste time with logistics with a few pieces of equipment. They've got more than plenty and did what they came to do.

As hideous as it all is, i think the mass media calls it a failed military attempt by russia in order to rose paint everything for the masses. But in reality, they've done what they set out to do, even if it cost some losses.

It is also my personal theory that, they more than likely have the means to repeat this process in 5-10 or 20 years if they choose to. Maybe this time with heavier losses, but they are capable.

In reality, it was genocide and should be condemned - no civilized or uncivilized country should do business with putin or his followers in all future. Only if future russian leaders truly repent, starts paying restitution and working continually to rebuild and help out, it can never be even halfway forgiven.


Anyone agree or disagree to this?



Bonus question: Will future russian leaders move away from dictatorship and police state, and into a more democratic and open style, after putin dies of old age? Or is the corruption and indoctrination too deeply ingrained?

That and basically annihilated Ukraine's economy, infastrcuture and future potential.

Bonus question = No. If any change away from dictatorship happens. I think it's in the fragmentation of the Russian Federation. Like a continuation of the collapse of the USSR.

IMHO

Russia was using the whole old LGB methods using threats, corruptions, assassinations, kompromat etc to submit and control Ukraine. And when not working: violence, invasion.
Ukraine's gov strategy adviser explained in interview that they had no other choice than joining the NATO (or to start the procedure to join) else they were about to be completely absorbed by Russia within 10-15 years.
Putin was expecting the West to not react, along with short delay of 3 days victory, then Zelensly & High ranked assassination etc... We know what they can do now, so it's almost a certainty.


The origin of conflict is Putin trying to get old USSR countries back using coercions & related vs Ukrainians who discovered itself as an independant country, they were definitely helped since 2014 (first invasions) by USA.
It's harder to accuse USA when they were just equipping and preparing a country. US used its influence earlier 2014 but Ukraine is trying to get rid of Russia since ... Centuries ?

There's an independant group of officials and elected officials banned by Putin, Which is "ready" to come back and to organize new elections etc, but the transition just before will probably be bloody. They are saying it themselves IMO they are real "experts" on this question.

This post was edited by Meanwhile on Nov 15 2022 05:16pm

Ukraine is a proxy war between the US and Russia in which the US seeks to prevent Russia from challenging American economic and military supremacy so that the US doesn't have 2 super power opponents going forward (even if one is only barely qualifying as a super power), while Russia seeks to reclaim the influence it once had and prevent further expansion of hostile nations on its borders which ramped up in around 2002 with the moron Bush creating a scenario which Russia couldn't ignore.

Ukraine itself is meaningless. As a result the Russian forces were improperly prepared and have encountered far more resistance than was expected. Of course Russia was surprised just how heavily NATO got involved which exacerbated their struggles. But the fact is Russia never had interest in permanently occupying the entire country. Idealy they would get the pro Russians back in power, that is impossible now.

But in the end, outside Crimea and Donbass, Russia doesn't care about Ukraine. Russia cares about unseating the US as ultimate arbiter of the global economy, and they appear to be succeeding to a degree. The Russian economy is in recovery and expected to resume growth within 18 months while the entire West is in recession that has no end in sight, and BRICS is growing fast. It is a long way from challenging the US dollar, but it is a long way from the nothing it was before the invasion as well. Cutting economic ties to Russia forced multiple nations to join BRICS, and that alone leaves the US dollar much weaker than it was a year ago.

Anything that happens to Ukrainian people is at best an afterthought to all sides. A propaganda piece, not something to act on. Russia doesn't care what its soldiers do, and the West doesn't care that providing weapons to Ukraine extends the conflict and results in more damage to Ukrainian infrastructure and population. Both sides care only about their own ability to project power and control the narrative.

its a religious war.

Russia has changed since the collapse of the USSR. The USSR was militant atheist. they tortured and executed religious people, destroyed temples and churches, and supressed religion at every turn. when the USSR collapsed, christianity re-emerged and became central to russian life. Putin and his cronies are fundamentalist christians. they spend tons of money on building elaborate christians churches and cathedrals. Putin for 15 years has decried the West as losing its religion, turning to satan, etc. he predicted like 10 years ago that the West would accept homosexuality and pedophilia. he has decried the mutiliation of children with gender reassignment surgery.

Look at it this way. the entire leadership group of modern Russia saw their parents or brothers or sisters or grandparents tortured and slain by militant radical left wing communist atheists. they now see that group rising in the West. there is absolutely no way they can allow that to infect Russia a second time. they refuse. they will launch all of their nukes and blow up the world before allowing it again as it is a better fate. they want Ukraine as a buffer state to block Western culture. if they aren't allowed to have it, they will just end the human race in nuclear war. death is better to them.

When you think of Russia, think of Waco / the Branch Davidians. Except the Branch Davidians have 6000 nukes and will fire if they don't get their way religiously.

This post was edited by Kuggergug on Nov 15 2022 06:55pm

Thank you for the good answers, much appreciated.

Of course i have no other hope than that all ukrainians win the war and rebuild their country. I've seen some posts around that assess and speculate with zelenskyj and if he has an interest in keeping the war going as a way to draw incentives and capitalize from US/NATO aid and benefits .. but i highly doubt it. Many leaders would fill a suitcase with money and disappear. He hasn't done that.

Putin need to deflect attention of general public from his pillaging of the Russian state combined with malignant narcissism + little man syndrome + dementia kicking in is all it is.
Everything else is just artificial low quality propaganda created and nurtured over the years by Kremlin to brainwash its people with and give Putin "valid perspective" in his mind.
Thats what happens when a madman tyrant is surrounded by yes man for over 20 years and needs wars every few years to hide his shortcomings.

First of all, thank you for the fg.

In the end I'm confident Ukraine will remain in control of most of the nation. Crimea is gone for the foreseeable future, as is Donbass. But they should retain the rest, and should receive much help rebuilding. I'd be surprised if they didn't get that much.

I think Zelenski is a patriot. Crazy asshole but he wouldn't abandon his country. He'd be a pariah if he had just filled a suitcase and ran. Doubt he'd have lasted long. But also doubt the thought crossed his mind to begin with.

I realize I never answered the bonus question. I don't think that is something that can be consciously decided. Evolution will determine which governing style is most beneficial. Poor governing will fail and good governing will succeed. Where good and poor aren't what people believe but actually what is functional and what isn't. It is a constantly shifting environment and as nice as it might be to think a country wants to be free-er and will be better off if it is, that isn't necessarily the reality. Authoritarianism has some advantages and some weaknesses. All governing styles do. We're a long way from finding a sustainable long term system. Someone will always be playing devils advocate because it's a niche to exploit. Any system that can be thought up and implemented will be eventually, on some scale. Jury is out on what things will look like down the road. It depends who wins which battles along the way, and by how much. Chances are noone will recognize the most important moments until long after they've happened.

In short, whether future Russian leaders lean towards democracy or dictatorship will depend on how effective authoritarianism and democratic policies are. Not on what people want.