A very interesting article about the long-term electoral upsides and downsides if educational polarization continues to go up among white voters:
https://split-ticket.org/2022/01/03/the-white-vote-and-educational-polarization/?s=09

The key argument is that a continuation of educational polarization will see more of the college-educated Trump voters from 2016 or 2020 eventually become Democrats and more of the non-college Biden voters eventually flip to Republicans. The impact of this voter tradeoff by state is shown on the following map, blue = upside for Dems, red = upside for Reps:



What jumps out is the upside for Democrats in Texas and Georgia, where the educational polarization among whites is lifting them up while the non-white share of the electorate is rising sharply at the same time. In other words, Georgia is a lost cause for the GOP in the long run and they really need to make up sizeable ground with Texas latinos to hold the state if things continue at the current rate. If they can make enough inroads with hispanics to hold Texas, they should also be fine in Florida and Arizona. Conversely, if Dems can even just somewhat hold their current margins with hispanics, diversification plus educational polarization will flip both GA and eventually also TX their way, and then it's game over in the electoral college.

For Republicans, the obvious target is Wisconsin, potentially also Nevada and Maine. Wisconsin is probably a lost cause for Democrats in the long run while they might be able to hold on in Nevada based on urbanization and their strong local machine.
Perhaps more importantly, the map shows that educational polarization is a wash in Florida and North Carolina and an (albeit smaller) boon for the GOP throughout the midwest and in the recent battleground state of Arizona.




The bottom line is that if the educational polarization among white voters continues to increase, this will probably be beneficial for Democrats in the electoral college, but benefit the GOP in the Senate because a larger number of overall states is inching their way.
One aspect the article didn't look at is the impact of growing educational polarization among non-white voters. I believe we're starting to see this effect among hispanic voters, which should be good for the GOP since they have much more to gain than lose with these constituencies.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jan 14 2022 09:19pm

Alrighty, noted.

if the republicans cant hold texas its game over for quite a while

on the other hand, the country is done in the long run anyway, no matter who wins whatever election

It's dangerous to assume that voter demographic patterns are going to remain the same. It wasn't so long ago that it was common knowledge that a rising share of minority voters was going to deliver Democrats an electoral majority. Now that looks presumptuous at best, and ridiculous at worst. Do more (or less) people choose to go to university? Does something happen to change voting patterns among graduates? I don't think either party should make decisions based off of this. Focus on a coherent message that wins the largest number of voters first, and then try to tailor it towards electorally significant states second.

The thing is that Democrats don't even need to flip Texas outright - merely making it truly competitive would already have a huge debilitating effect on the GOP. If Repubs have to invest significant amounts of resources just to play defense in a huge and expensive must-win state, that would cripple their ability to hold the line or to go on offense elsewhere.





College-educated voters trending toward liberal or leftist parties and working-class voters trending toward conservative and/or populist parties is a political macro-trend. It has been going on for decades, at least since the late 1960s, and has been observed in almost every country around the world. Sure, Trump supercharged this trend and we should not assume that it will continue at the same pace with him removed from the equation, but there is zero reason to assume that this trend will just stop or even reverse.

By the contrary, there are early signs that educational polarization is starting to also manifest among non-white voters, particularly hispanics. Meanwhile, economic polarization (along income brackets) reached its lowest point in decades in 2020 and even racial polarization was down.



N.B. the rising share of minority voters will eventually deliver Democrats a structural majority if they can hold their margins with them even just halfway. Democratic strategists were horribly wrong about the timing of their "emerging majority", but they might still be proven right when it comes to the long-term outlook. It's far from a certainty, but still very possible.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jan 14 2022 11:06pm

I would like the day when I actually knew what the GOP policy on stuff was..
not just "own the libs"
They are the anti party they have no actual ideas.
Besides close the border that one is actually clear.

I think that is going to hurt their voter turn out more than anything after Trump fanaticism wears off.

This post was edited by theCrossbones on Jan 14 2022 11:25pm

The answer is for both parties to fight for the educated segments of the electorate and to completely abandon the uneducated. The Founding Fathers had the right idea but white trash Democrats like Andrew Jackson ruined the great experiment. It's time to take back the country and for politicians to cater to the people who actually matter. Fuck the construction worker, the burger flipper, the janitor, etc. You're going to be replaced by illegal immigrants/robots and your kids are going to die of a heroin overdose. You're done, it's time to sit down and shut up.

Hispanics will be the death nell to the Democratic party. They are already on unsteady terms because the Democrat brainwashing only seems to target the super blacks.

Democrats don't have a platform. They just manufacture a grievance narrative. Just look at Bideno

Envy is a sin, just look at the book of Genesis

This post was edited by EndlessSky on Jan 15 2022 12:24am

They have 5X the platform as the GOP.. Maybe you don't agree but they have things they want to achieve etc.
One thing they have envy over is party allegiance for sure