Quote (Goomshill @ Aug 15 2021 08:57pm)
The outcome could have been worse, this was a mostly bloodless takeover and the Taliban have no interest in retribution. Now they are in control and permitting US evacuations.
The mismanagement couldn't have been worse. Until a few days ago official US policy was to pretend the comet doesn't exist until it impacts the earth. They were still saying Ghani would stay in power in a deal with the Taliban, anticipating indefinite deadline extensions and holding all the cities.
This will go up in history with the worst US strategic commands alongside the fall of Saigon, the Dieppe Raid and invasion of Libya.
Everyone and their mother knew the Taliban were going to take over as soon as the US left, and we had decades to prepare an exit strategy and plan around it. And instead we got pure denialism up until the Taliban took over the whole country. Even if there was no victory condition, there was every opportunity to exit cleanly, with a structured withdrawal. Not cramming 800 people into a single cargo plane and hand over billions of dollars of state of the art weaponry to tribal militias.
So I think those are the two things that need to be stressed. This isn't a bad outcome by any stretch. If the Taliban were always going to win, then having the war end without any battles, without any massacres, without any humanitarian crisis, is remarkable. And the US couldn't have flubbed its military strategy any worse and completely fucked up in profound ways, at every level of leadership and planning, and there is no shortage of blame to go around for just how incompetent this affair has been handled. In fact, the primary reason why the ANA disbanded and cities fell without any brutal conflicts, is because the Taliban leadership was so adept and planned their strategy well. They bribed local leaders, gave guarantees of safe passage, appealed to local tribes. They negotiated with each regional chief to just relinquish the cities without needing to fire a shot.
We don't know the outcome yet. The Taliban could go on a crazy revenge spree and start mass executions. If the Taliban showed their hand and acted like ISIS back in April, I'm pretty sure we would have done something about it. So far, it's been relatively bloodless and that's a good thing.
As for mismanagement, there's no question about it. Prior to even ANNOUNCING our withdrawal, we should have had procedures to expedite interpreters and other targets (and even if we
did have that, it should have been better). In addition, we should have talked with other countries so that we could keep people there temporarily in case they didn't have all the documentation ready. Handing over billions of dollars of equipment was inevitable because you have to give the Afghan government the ABILITY to defeat the Taliban.
We'll see what happens. The world is watching and if I were them I'd implement some tiny reforms so that they can say "hey, we're better than we were 20 years ago!" As long as they don't allow terrorists to train in their country and export them, the world will recognize them as a legitimate government.