Not long ago there was the tongue and cheek saying of learn to code as many struggled on main street America. We've come full circle today with coding going from 100% human to probably 90+% generated by AI very soon. The updated 'learn to code' is 'become an entrepreneur'.
I work in finance and this isn't limited to tech. AI is being pushed so fucking hard that you can't go a day without hearing about it. I have an inside joke on my team that when a managing director mentions it i need to respond and tell him i already have a Lord and Savior, because fuck me it's being treated as the end all be all. Pretty much everyone in the org has anxiety about it. Mgt wont say it out loud but we all know that the perceived productivity gains of today are the headcount reductions shortly thereafter. We have one guy resigning in two weeks, going to a different bank and we already know that his req wont be opened again, similarly to last time someone quit, they just tell us to leverage AI for the remaining team to do more with less. In reality the AI is incrementally beneficial, sure makes some things easier to do but you still need to audit it a ton and check for DQ/hallucinations and so on.
It's the reason why Nasdaq & SP500 is going parabolic, labor is a huge cost. CEOs and board are rewarded for pushing AI, so naturally the whole herd does it. We can find ourself in a scenario where all these AI companies crash but that doesn't mean humans are coming back and you will see huge headcount reversal.
the thing with these models too is in any sector as it seems to struggle and make massive mistakes that's just it learning. humans are terrible at learning from mistakes, if it doesnt hurt or cause public shame its a crap shoot if they'll even remember long term. maybe a day or week, but a year later they might make the same mistake and not realize it until it all goes sideways again. large models eat mistakes like food an commit them to forever memory.
that's why LLMs and photo editor AIs progressed so fast. helped along by a MASSIVE user base that fed them mistakes to spur progress. as these get implemented more and more the mistakes will disappear exponentially too, or at least far quicker than people expect.
the sad truth is no where is safe. we're all gazan refugees now trying to guess where the bombs wont fall. you can make a business and it might be irrelevant in 15 years. you can be a doctor and find out that in 15 years only 50% of the doctors we need today are required. its easy to point out things that will just be gone, like legal clarks or data entry into systems, but its REALLY hard to predict beyond that. imo dont bother trying to plan for what your kids are going to do, instead make the best doomsday plan you can for the potential reality your kids might do nothing. its hard to do nothing and be happy, but its almost impossible if you dont plan for it.