Georgia 49.1 47.8 Trump +1.3
North Carolina 48.7 47.5 Trump +1.2
Pennsylvania 48.5 48.1 Trump +0.4
Michigan 47.8 48.3 Harris +0.5
Wisconsin 48.2 48.6 Harris +0.4
Arizona 49.1 46.3 Trump +2.8
Nevada 48.2 47.6 Trump +0.6
What ever happens tomorrow, this comes down to - can Trump win a single rust belt state.
I think it would be fair to call it for Trump in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona. Nevada leans Trump, but Nevada doesn't have enough electoral votes to tip this particular calculation so it's not really in play at this point.
All he has to do is win one of Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. Those 3 states are all that matter now. If I were a betting man, I would say that Pennsylvania is the one that Trump will win, while he will lose Michigan and Wisconsin. All 3 states by a razor thin margin. Trump's absolute worst case scenario is 268. My prediction as of right now is Kamala 251 Trump 287.
One counter argument I will represent to some of the left wing cope - no I don't think Republican increase in early voting in 2024 is much of a cannibalization if at all. You simply get more people by pushing early voting, people who may not get off their ass and vote in person on the day of. There's virtually no downside.
This post was edited by Thebarba on Nov 5 2024 04:10am