Bovada has Trump listed at -175, or in other words if you bet $175 that Trump wins the presidential 2024 election you would get your bet + $100

Biden is listed at +400, or in other words if you bet $175 that Biden wins the presidential 2024 election you would get your bet back + $700

Do you agree with these odds? Do you think the odds are influenced by a greater number of bettors picking Trump?

The election is 4 months away, voter recency bias extends to maybe 2 months maximum, 1 month usually. Events taking place right now have about as much relevance as if they were taking place on the dark side of the moon

Received wisdom generally, but I'm not sure how much it impacts this race barring the (more probable than not) situation where Biden drops out and the race turns on its head. Biden and Trump are known commodities, and the stability of the race over the last ~9 months has reflected that.

We are in 2024... Fate of elections can change in 1 week, even at the scale of 300 millions people.

It already did in 2016 with the Comey gaffe

This post was edited by Meanwhile on Jul 8 2024 10:45am

That is the classical analysis. Id wager events taking place now will impact Trump. Biden will be swapped out so another fresh untainted unknown populist Democrat can fill. Biden don't have to win, he just has to make Trump look worse while making his replacement seem golden.

For Trump's campaign, he need need maintain his more tempered rhetoric pickup more the independent. His excessive rehtoric don't seem to help much at this point

Too Big To Rig

yep.

Democrats got no chance in hell.

here's hoping

the corpse says he's staying

In 2016, neither candidate had been president before, both party's bases were unhappy with their respective candidate, both candidates had to go through fierce primaries and there was just general instability in the race and the polling. A ton of voters were on the fence and didn't make up their mind until the very last moment (Comey letter).

In 2024, both candidates have been president, the polling and the race seem extremely stable, virtually everyone has made up their mind over Biden and Trump. Neither primary was any close. The big difference is that the GOP base seems more united behind Trump than the Democrats are behind Biden, who was struggling with young, progressive and/or non-white voters even before the disaster debate. And now, there's also doubt whether Biden is still fit for the job on a very fundamental level.

For these reasons, I don't really see how Democrats are supposed to turn this race around if Biden remains their standard bearer. Yes, there is still time and Trump remains a deeply flawed and eminently beatable candidate, but Biden clearly doesn't have it in him anymore to do the things which would be necessary to accomplish such a turnaround.

Creating an atmosphere, a story, a narration to try to change reality and to defend ideas is typical of this world of information overload in which we live in 2024.
I will stick on facts and I am not able to predict future. Everything can change in a week, the world is pretty unstable. I would leave it at that.