I currently don't see a future where one of three things don't happen:

1) UBI is mandated.

2) Laws are passed that require companies to have X% of human workers.

3) A combination of the two.

UBI was a policy brought up in the 2020 election cycle in anticipation of LLM based technology (ChatGPT) and the possibility of AGI on the horizon

Where we are today, AGI is more in the realm of science fiction than reality but we aren't really sure how far off highly advanced models come to AGI.

AI will continue to clear out more and more menial tasks which will undoubtedly create higher rate of job displacement than new opportunities

By 2027 fully autonomous trucks, including truck platoons of two or more trucks in which all trucks have a driver, but only the driver of the lead truck has full control of the vehicle, are anticipated to appear on highways

Probably by the end of this decade a big majority of drivers will be automated

Other labor jobs such as construction workers, warehouse workers, cooks, janitors, mechanics, bartenders, electricians, plumbers, carpenters, service, etc will have a significant chunk automated

Even an unemployment rate of 10% would be significant enough to demand attention to policies such as UBI, and it is extremely difficult to imagine the U.S. not hitting at least 10% unemployment during the next administration

Alternately we will continue to elect governments who are willing to sacrifice Gen pop wellbeing to line the pockets of oligarchs

I thought the solution to this problem was all the opioid overdosing

This post was edited by Jupe on May 6 2024 01:10pm

I don't know how mechanics, electricians, plumbers, and carpenters are going to be automated. Like, is there going to be robots turning wrenches? Snaking out a tree root filled drain line?

yes, give money plz

see tesla. for real though i'd bet we're 10 odd years away from automated oil changes, tire rotations, tire changes, etc.

it all starts with taking out the easy tasks, then one day a "mechanic" is actually just a "engine and transmission guy". with half the crew and half the business.

Yeah these roles are safe for a very long time. People are overestimating the pace of these changes. There's too many edge cases of where things go wrong or whatever that will have a material drag. Even something like autonomous driving, people have been saying it's right around the corner for like 10 years now and it's still only really existent in controlled instances or very specific cities and so on. Wide scale adoption will take decades.

An assembly line, replete with controlled movement and uniformity of new components is a far cry from rusty bolts on calipers or a bent steering knuckle.

sure, but that's not what i said. take any mechanic's shop, what is 75% of their business? general maintenance. oil changes, tire rotations and changes, air filter changes, headlight changes, etc.

that stuff is all fairly easy to automate, i mean we have Tesla's currently reading the world and driving in dynamic 3-d world. cars aren't nearly as dynamic, make/model/year all have x-y-z coordinates you can program around.

the point being what happens to a mechanic's shop with 10 employees when 75% of the business is removed, or even 25%? well 2-3 guys are let go at first, then eventually it's 2-3 people doing highly specialized work, maybe by that time with a robot that can tell them the issue much faster.

like i said i'd be shocked if by 2034 you can't program an appointment on the app, drive into a stall, be lifted up and receive an oil change and tire change that takes 15 mins.

That sounds plausible in theory, but I'm having a hard time imaging AI fixing some rusty old junk bucket without damaging old rusty. I think AI will fulfill the desk positions that are all over the labor market. Like you said, app based appointments or something. Clerical work in the chopping block.

As for UBI seems a violation of 13th under peonage grounds.