d2jsp
Log InRegister
d2jsp Forums > Off-Topic > General Chat > Political & Religious Debate > Niger War Watchthread
12318Next
Add Reply New Topic New Poll
Member
Posts: 50,753
Joined: Jan 20 2010
Gold: 5,146.00
Aug 5 2023 06:01am
https://www.thecable.ng/nigeria-dhq-were-yet-to-receive-order-for-military-intervention-in-niger

At some indeterminate point in the next few hours or days or weeks or never, Nigeria will lead an invasion of Niger on behalf of the western sphere of influence, as the last holdout in the Sahel was seized by Russian-aligned rebels in a coup that overthrew the western-aligned government. Naturally, there are rumors that Tchiani's new regime will seek a Wagner alliance as he sent general Salifou Mody to Mali seeking military assistance, while Nigeria and ECOWAS cut power (70% of Niger's being imported) and put up sanctions.

Russia itself has responded by calling for “urgent national dialogue” and said "western threats of intervention .... will not help ease tensions or calm the domestic situation”.
Western nationals are being evacuated by foreign soldiers remain, including the US drone base at Agadez
Member
Posts: 45,717
Joined: Aug 25 2008
Gold: 40,130.00
Aug 5 2023 06:25am

This will be the greatest double standards of all time. ^_^
Member
Posts: 50,753
Joined: Jan 20 2010
Gold: 5,146.00
Aug 5 2023 11:21am
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/5/nigers-military-rulers-ask-for-help-from-russian-group-wagner

Malian sources now confirming that the Tchiani regime is indeed seeking Wagner mercenaries to defend against a Nigerian / ECOWAS invasion
Even with western backing this will definitely add an element of reluctance to Tinubu on whether to actually invade, because its not whatsoever in Nigeria's self-interest to get bogged down in an east/west proxy war where they are the ones dying, ala Ukraine 2.0. That could also be a cause for Nigeria to back down and an uneasy peace in the region, but hey we're watching it unfold in realtime so who knows
Member
Posts: 9,693
Joined: Mar 2 2006
Gold: 1,590.00
Aug 5 2023 01:05pm
West should sanction Nigeria if they invade a sovereign nation.
Member
Posts: 45,717
Joined: Aug 25 2008
Gold: 40,130.00
Aug 5 2023 01:18pm
Quote (Malopox @ 6 Aug 2023 03:05)
West should sanction Nigeria if they invade a sovereign nation.


But isn't the West Supporting Nigeria at this point if they invade Niger?
Member
Posts: 16,072
Joined: Dec 27 2019
Gold: 69.69
Aug 5 2023 02:29pm
Game of thrones is unfolding irl.
Member
Posts: 28,870
Joined: Aug 11 2013
Gold: 10,712.00
Aug 5 2023 03:53pm
Just kind of lazy to research it but what exactly is the motivator for Nigeria to go in? From what I understand they have pipelines through Niger going up north and eventually to ports headed for Europe but aside from that is there anything else? Are they scared it can be come a hub of terrorism or something?

Many months ago I pointed towards the fact that there was this mood that Europe can basically replace Russian energy by going to either far away places or start relying on less secure sources, this being a prime example. I'm still kind of shocked how cucked Europe is in basically giving up cheap Russian energy which made them competitive to pay way more from other places.

Also what kind of bothers me is when stuff like this happens the first thing we and many aid givers do is freeze aid. These are extremely poor countries and freezing grain or other type of food items donations accomplishes what exactly? In the history of these conflicts, how many of these juntas actually change course or yield when the aid stops? I feel like it's close to none, so you're really hurting the poorest and most vulnerable there. To put some numbers behind it ~40% of Niger's budget comes from foreign aid and about 3 million were already facing acute food shortages there prior to this.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Aug 5 2023 04:05pm
Member
Posts: 1,559
Joined: Nov 11 2021
Gold: 11.65
Aug 5 2023 03:57pm
It's basically PR. If ECOWAS can't prevent Niger after Mali Guinea and Burkina Faso successfully all had military coups then what point is ECOWAS? It's not a pretty situation.
Member
Posts: 49,891
Joined: Jun 19 2006
Gold: 3.88
Aug 5 2023 06:05pm
This is great, they have stopped scam calling me.
Member
Posts: 50,753
Joined: Jan 20 2010
Gold: 5,146.00
Aug 5 2023 11:36pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Aug 5 2023 04:53pm)
Just kind of lazy to research it but what exactly is the motivator for Nigeria to go in? From what I understand they have pipelines through Niger going up north and eventually to ports headed for Europe but aside from that is there anything else? Are they scared it can be come a hub of terrorism or something?

Many months ago I pointed towards the fact that there was this mood that Europe can basically replace Russian energy by going to either far away places or start relying on less secure sources, this being a prime example. I'm still kind of shocked how cucked Europe is in basically giving up cheap Russian energy which made them competitive to pay way more from other places.

Also what kind of bothers me is when stuff like this happens the first thing we and many aid givers do is freeze aid. These are extremely poor countries and freezing grain or other type of food items donations accomplishes what exactly? In the history of these conflicts, how many of these juntas actually change course or yield when the aid stops? I feel like it's close to none, so you're really hurting the poorest and most vulnerable there. To put some numbers behind it ~40% of Niger's budget comes from foreign aid and about 3 million were already facing acute food shortages there prior to this.


Well aside from Nigeria beholden to western interests and in particular Shell Oil, their self-interest in keeping Niger as the last Sahel state in the western sphere would arguably be to serve as a buffer against the militant islamists who threaten Nigeria so much. There's no imaginable world in which a totally sovereign Nigeria would want to risk embroiling itself in an east-west proxy war against Wagner mercenaries, and Nigeria clearly has more independent self-determination than a true CIA puppet state like post-Maidan Ukraine.

But yeah what's the status quo going to be? Freezing all aid and electricity to a state that was already dirt poor and vulnerable and starving, because they don't adhere to our geopolitical whims? We give money to Mali and Burkina Faso after their coups, so would this just be a fuck-you-in-particular to Niger? Or are we going to have to walk back the sanctions and bluster before status quo sets back in?

Quote (Plaguefear @ Aug 5 2023 07:05pm)
This is great, they have stopped scam calling me.


naw those are the guys who want to invade niger, if the richest man in niger actually owns a phone he'd still only be able to call you speaking hausa or maybe djarma, most of them don't even speak french let alone english
its one of the few places in the world where lingua franca doesn't apply because its such an utter irredeemable shithole, something like 10-15% of niger has internet access

Its hard to understate just how abandoned and exploited by foreign powers- both east and west- Niger has been historically, because unlike the oil baron states like Nigeria that profited and have at least started modernizing, the average monthly income for a Niger man is about $50 USD. And that's for a country with a large uranium mining and export industry, owned by their historical slave masters in France and largely taken over by Indian, Chinese, Canadian and Australian interests. We estimate about half of all Niger children age 5-14 are working and at least 5% of them working in the mining industry.
Go Back To Political & Religious Debate Topic List
12318Next
Add Reply New Topic New Poll