Think this is an underreported news item that's of real significance.



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/10/iran-saudi-arabia-agree-restore-ties-china-talks

Significant imo for two reasons. Aside from Israel, these two are the primary and most dominant power brokers in the ME and I would say in some ways lead the Muslim world. SA is the leader of Sunnis while Iran is unquestionably the leader for Shiites. Both of these have sponsored rival factions for many years all across the ME. Syria, Yemen, Iraq & many others. If they are at peace this could be the beginning of ME peace that's been so elusive.

Second reason is the contrast this draws between us and China. While we've been going around galvanizing support for Ukraine to fight Russia, with little interest in brokering peace, China is using it's influence for peace. I think the global community notices this and it reflects extremely poorly on us. This is 100% an L for US influence, when the power we want to paint as the ultimate adversary and evil is going around bringing historic foes together to sit down and reconcile differences.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Mar 10 2023 01:47pm

could be good for oil prices as well, direly needed in this market.

just curious how you'd not see Obama's deal with Iran as an attempt to broker peace? it was a poorly done deal to be sure, but what would you classify it as if not peace brokering? Iran was spiraling towards a seemingly workable nuclear program, which would have been VERY unsettling to SA. we attempted to slow their progress, and failed.

on a positive note Iran seems as close to the tipping point of liberalizing as they've been since the 70s revolution. active population resistance of Islamic legal reform, population centers have a stark contrast to rural more conservative areas but are also where power is centralized, etc. The Ayatollah's losing favor is good for america, the middle east, and the world.

They broken the relation only 7 years ago.

The war between Sunnis and Shiites began on October 10, 680 with the massacre of the descendants of the Prophet Muhammad in Karbala (Iraq) The war between the two versions of the religion of peace has lasted for more than 1300 years. No reason for this not to continue for another good millennium.

Lmao

I was never against it really, think you're folding me under the umbrella for no reason. For the most part i've never been anti-Iran and don't really subscribe to nonsense like "number 1 sponsor of terrorism". That deal did have some less than wanted concessions from Iran, and that was the primary criticism as I remember.

I generally think that the most effective way to influence someone is through shared economic interests. Sanctions don't work. They haven't worked against Iran, nor Russia and just makes the general public there way more anti-west.

i think in this context if we'd have made a "good" economic deal with Iran we'd be facing Saudi Arabia as a foe right now in their place. I'm frankly not sure how we as the USA have the ability to play middleman between those 2 nations given our history. i view it less as a situation where we should have done what China did, and more of a situation where they're the only ones able to do what they're doing.

The EU won't get a good deal between them due to Iran mistrust. Russia is in with Iran but the Saudis wouldnt risk EU deals atm. No one else has the influence and Russia hardly does for anything but weapons sales. China is emerging as an actual world super power, still a distant #2 for now, but even with them being evil this may be a rare W for all. i view middle eastern civil war as a worse issue for the world than i do a slight bump in Chinese influence. but the deal itself could change my mind if it seriously empowers china.

Well China was able to do this, because for the most part they didn't have a history of taking sides between the two or trying to overthrow the government of one of these countries. This is happening now because both Iran and SA realize there is a shifting power balance to the east and they see an American empire that's increasingly spread thin and getting more agro to keep control, Taiwan and Ukraine are just two manifestations of that insecurity. That and the fact that they are both large oil producers, with the east growing consumption while the west is trying to shift away from fossil fuels. So if you're SA and your top customers are spamming "we want to move away from oil, your single and strongest revenue generator in the next 10-15 years" of course SA would be looking east--that's where their stream of revenue lies and peace with your largest neighbor is just good for business, especially as the military empire that ensured your security for decades begins to fade.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Mar 10 2023 02:43pm

It's less about American power and more about Western hostility to Saudi Arabia. That started with Obama's failed pivot to Iran, the demands for "pariah state" status following Khashoggi's killing, and the latent hostility of the Democratic party vis-a-vis the Sauds. It's hard to put your eggs in one basket when they want your regime overthrown. The point about market shift is fair, and definitely plays a considerable role.

I don't know exactly if it's less or more but the point you bring up is absolutely valid. I think the Khashoggi thing was particularly embarrassing for us. It was some of the lowest IQ political maneuvering we've seen in recent history. Like Biden and the Democrats soap boxed about human rights over 1 guys death essentially spitting in the face of a very proud person bin Salman, only for a few years later for us to be at their mercy with wanting them to pump more. Then the Biden admin goes and quietly lobbies for immunity for bin Salman as a last ditch effort to appease the relationship. Supremely dumb.

i find it curious that you use American meddling in foreign nations (a historical fact) as BOTH a hurdle to negotiations (i agree) AND a sign of desperation due to a thinly spread empire.

how can it be a fact that we did it for a century as we were the undisputed #1 empire on earth AND also do it out of desperation? i'm not saying you're wrong it is in ways a desperate move (Taiwan especially), but it's also business as usual for america. Why would Iran think to themselves "the world #1 superpower did this to us for a few decades, but now that they're still doing it it means they think China will overtake them"?

it's a minor point, i dont disagree with your post at large, and didnt think i posted anything to indicate that i would.

China is quickly becoming the global hegemon

America & the West are complete and total clown states at this point, western governments lie to their citizens even more than the CCP