Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jan 20 2024 11:54am)
And Trump is a historically flawed challenger.
Also, polling can be misleading because it doesn't tell you where a politician is losing support. In the case of Biden, his polling is skewed downward by the effect of the Gaza war and the deep dissatisfaction that core Demcoratic constituencies like Muslims or young progressives feel because of it. Even without this factor, Biden's polling would still be in the mud and one of the worst in history at this point in the respective presidency, don't get me wrong. Still, there is reason to assume that these groups will come around in the end and vote for Biden. They just need to be reminded that Trump was the most pro-Israel president in US history and generally has little love lost for Muslims. That alone won't rescue Biden, but an improving economy would surely help his foturtunes.
And Democrats haven't even begun carpet bombing the airwaves with anti-Trump ads, reminding voters why they hated Trump, reminding them with visceral imagery of how ugly Jan 6 was, reminding them of his handling of classified documents, his flattery of Putin, and so on.
Long story short, 1:1 odds are imho totally fair. Biden vs Trump in 2024 is a race to the fucking bottom, and a total crapshoot in terms of betting.
With respect to Biden's loss of Muslim and young far-left voters over the Israel war, Biden is in a lose-lose situation.
If he tries to regain their support by abandoning Israel, he loses ALL of his other voters and would likely lead to the destruction of the democratic party in it's entirety along with some sort of intervention by the deep state.
Those voters would also never vote for Trump either way (given that he is indeed the most pro-Israel president in US history as well as pro-Protestant and Christianity and anti-Islam) so they either vote for Biden or vote for no one/a far-left independent.
But yeah, most of these voters will just end up voting for Biden anyway. But a good chunk may sit it out.
This post was edited by El1te on Jan 20 2024 02:12pm
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