Quote (Ghot @ Oct 31 2020 09:32pm)
I would go by the polls too... except for one thing. They were ALL wrong in 2016. They all said Hillary would wipe out Trump, and she barely won the popular vote, by a measly 3 million.
I think "ALL wrong"is a bit of a stretch.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/AZ - projected Trump 2.5, actual Trump 3.5
CO - projected Clinton 4.0, actual Clinton 5.0
FL - projected Clinton 0.5, actual Trump 1.0
GA - projected Trump 4.0, actual Trump 5.0
IA - projected Trump 3.0, actual Trump 10.0MI - projected Clinton 4.0, actual Trump 0.5MN - projected Clinton 6.0, actual Clinton 1.5NV - projected Clinton 1.0, actual Clinton 2.5
NH - projected Clinton 3.5, actual Clinton 2.0
NC - projected Clinton 0.5, actual Trump 3.5OH - projected Trump 2.0, actual Trump 7.0PA - projected Clinton 3.5, actual Trump 0.5VA - projected Clinton 5.5, actual 5.5
WI - projected Clinton 5.0, actual Trump 0.5I bolded the swing states (polled more) that were off by more than 4.