Not sure why that post-election Trump thread was closed, so I'll just answer this here before I'm done for the week:
Quote (thesnipa)
since you've been back have you admitted even once that you were caught just as off guard as anyone that Trump won? i mean you spent a fair amount of time saying that the difference in ground game made it impossible for him to lose.
To answer this you really have to get at the mechanics of when/why Trump won, and even then I don't know the perspective of the average American. One really key difference between a person who may have just been watching the nightly news/following the election on Facebook and someone like me who's directly involved in electing candidates all throughout the country is that I was immediately aware of the impact of the two seminal events that caused/helped Trump to get elected, whereas that first person not only didn't immediately understand the impact, but they would have logically misinterpreted the effect of Comey's second intervention to be beneficial to Clinton (because he was "clearing" her). It wasn't, it hurt her just as much as the first one if not moreso. People who immediately had this information and who knew the scope of its impact on voters (especially those crucial Midwest states) knew Trump's odds of victory were increasing each day from 11 days out, and even moreso over the last 4 days. Ordinary people wouldn't learn this until well after Election Day and even now most seem to not really be aware of the impact.
I could give you a state by state/day by day etc. look at how Trump's odds were improving but you can see in a general sense from my only real posts down the stretch
here and
here, where I framed them in the context of Clinton looking for the easiest path to 270 and identified the states that ended up being the closest on Election Day.
Re: Clinton's ground game: the supposition made throughout the campaign that it was big/efficient enough to deliver victory was made under the practical assumption that Clinton wasn't going to get hit with 2 Black Swan events just before Election Day that overwhelmingly benefited Trump. Good news for her, there's tons of signs that her ground game was superior to his and one of the best in history. Bad news for her, it still wasn't enough.