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Dec 20 2025 01:28pm
I am struggling to see the difference here. If the root issue relates to spheres of influence (and here we agree) then (in my opinion, which we can disagree on) Nato is the physical manifestation of the sphere of influence that we talk about.

We do not need to have a hang up on this point. Rather, the question is, if we broadly agree that sphere of influence is the root cause, what does knowing this do to our broad assessment of the enfolding situation. As I understand it, Russia has repeatedly conceded that it will tolerate Ukraine in the EU (this was raised in previous and recent negotiations) but not in Nato, which suggests a degree of awareness/intent on the part of Russia.

The key issue (to my mind anyway) is Ukraine's intent going forward.


Russian propaganda has consistently framed NATO expansion as the root cause of this conflict... yet it was the prospect of EU membership (for the entirety of Ukraine!) which prompted their surrogate Yanukovych to go back on his promise from the 2010 campaign trail that he wouldn't stand in the way of UA moving toward the EU... to the point that he even risked an insurrection/rebellion/revolution which threatened his own position. Since Russian troops brought Crimea and the Donbas under their control post-2014, Russia has seemingly softened its stance on this point and it looks like they would be willing to tolerate rump-Ukraine joining the EU.

The distinction between spheres of influence and explicit NATO membership is an important one. Even before they joined NATO in 2023/24, Sweden and Finland belonged to the American sphere of influence. As did Western Ukraine post-Maidan. Had they been a NATO member, chances are high that Russia wouldn't have dared to invade in 2022. Likewise, Ukraine in 2021/early 2022 wasn't on the verge of joining NATO, not even close to it. (For example because a country embroiled in territorial disputes is explicitly barred from joing according to the alliance's own statutes.) Yet Russia still pulled the trigger on an invasion at that time, so the "threat" of Ukraine joining NATO cannot possibly have been the proximate cause of the invasion.


The key issue going forward will imho be the intent of both Ukraine and Russia. If Russia really wants to force regime change in Kyiv, or if it really wants to push for Kharkiv/Dnipro/Odessa, no amount of diplomatic effort will be able to end this war. IF Russia would be satisfied with roughly what it has now (perhaps insist on Kramatorsk/Sloviansk so they control the entire Donbas), peace will hinge on Ukraine's willigness to accept reality and officially acknowledge that the territory currently held by Russia is lost.

In either case, security guarantees will be a pivotal factor for lasting peace. Nobody wants this shit to start all over again in 5 or 10 years, it has to be settled once and for all.
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Dec 20 2025 11:02pm
New improvised anti-drone armor on russian tanks- just slapping shipping containers on them



effectively like spaced armor that covers most approaches. Still won't stop a nimble drone flying into the turret but unlike the standard spaced armor kits basically being loincloth coverage this is making it way harder for drones to contact the main armor
and considering it costs less than $1000 and is universally available that's going to see super wide adoption... if it works
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Dec 21 2025 02:54am
Russian propaganda has consistently framed NATO expansion as the root cause of this conflict... yet it was the prospect of EU membership (for the entirety of Ukraine!) which prompted their surrogate Yanukovych to go back on his promise from the 2010 campaign trail that he wouldn't stand in the way of UA moving toward the EU... to the point that he even risked an insurrection/rebellion/revolution which threatened his own position. Since Russian troops brought Crimea and the Donbas under their control post-2014, Russia has seemingly softened its stance on this point and it looks like they would be willing to tolerate rump-Ukraine joining the EU.

The distinction between spheres of influence and explicit NATO membership is an important one. Even before they joined NATO in 2023/24, Sweden and Finland belonged to the American sphere of influence. As did Western Ukraine post-Maidan. Had they been a NATO member, chances are high that Russia wouldn't have dared to invade in 2022. Likewise, Ukraine in 2021/early 2022 wasn't on the verge of joining NATO, not even close to it. (For example because a country embroiled in territorial disputes is explicitly barred from joing according to the alliance's own statutes.) Yet Russia still pulled the trigger on an invasion at that time, so the "threat" of Ukraine joining NATO cannot possibly have been the proximate cause of the invasion.


The key issue going forward will imho be the intent of both Ukraine and Russia. If Russia really wants to force regime change in Kyiv, or if it really wants to push for Kharkiv/Dnipro/Odessa, no amount of diplomatic effort will be able to end this war. IF Russia would be satisfied with roughly what it has now (perhaps insist on Kramatorsk/Sloviansk so they control the entire Donbas), peace will hinge on Ukraine's willigness to accept reality and officially acknowledge that the territory currently held by Russia is lost.

In either case, security guarantees will be a pivotal factor for lasting peace. Nobody wants this shit to start all over again in 5 or 10 years, it has to be settled once and for all.


I do not disagree with any of that (apart from the finland piece). Ultimately, which I touched on, and which you hinted at - Ukraine is unwilling to compromise, hell, its unwilling to even TALK to Russia. This is a huge problem. the recent 90 Billion will take this in to next year and beyond. I am unsure how Ukraine can change this other then removing zelensky.

If Finland was in Nato when Russia invaded Ukraine, it would be the same situation, Finland could not act unilaterally and if they had come to the rescue, thats a faster WW3 noting Finlands conventional army is awesome compared to the rest of Europe.

This post was edited by ferdia on Dec 21 2025 03:00am
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Dec 21 2025 05:30am
Why Ukrainians steal so much?
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Dec 22 2025 01:47pm
Poetry not permitted in Mordor, orcs aren't fond of the arts

CNN

A St Petersburg court has sentenced a 19-year-old woman to nearly three years in a penal colony after she was accused of repeatedly “discrediting” the Russian army, including by gluing a quotation on a statue of a Ukrainian poet.

Darya Kozyreva was sentenced to two years and eight months, the Joint Press Service of Courts in St. Petersburg said in statement Friday.

Kozyreva was arrested on February 24, 2024, after she glued a verse by Ukrainian poet Taras Shevchenko onto his monument in St Petersburg, according to OVD-Info, an independent Russian human rights group.

The verse from Shevchenko’s My Testament read, “Oh bury me, then rise ye up / And break your heavy chains / And water with the tyrants’ blood / The freedom you have gained,” OVD-Info said.

A second case was brought against her in August 2024, following an interview with Radio Free Europe in which she called Russia’s war in Ukraine “monstrous” and “criminal,” OVD-Info said.

During one of her hearings, the teenager maintained that she had merely recited a poem, and pasted a quote in Ukrainian, “nothing more,” the court press service said.
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Dec 22 2025 03:05pm
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Dec 23 2025 09:34am
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Dec 23 2025 11:27am
The Last Evader of the Donbas War

For ten years, Sergeant Yuri "Yura" Bondarenko remained at his post. His war began not with a grand invasion, but with a creeping, ominous shift. In the spring of 2014, his reserve unit in Luhansk Oblast was ordered to mobilize. Chaos reigned; conflicting reports spoke of "separatists," "volunteers," and "little green men." Yura, a quiet man of the forest from a village near Shchastia, saw not a call to defend the nation, but a summons to a fratricidal trap. His final order from a loyalist lieutenant, whispered amidst the confusion, was: "Do not engage. Stay off the roads. Observe and survive. We will return for you."

They never did. The front line solidified, then froze. Yura, trained as a scout, melted into the dense birch forests and labyrinthine drainage canals of the river valleys. His war became one of absolute concealment.

He built not one, but seven "kryivkas" (hidden dugouts, Ukrainian Insurgent Army style), throughout his sector, each meticulously camouflaged with sod and fallen branches. He foraged: wild apples, mushrooms, berries, and stole sparingly from the outermost gardens of abandoned dachas only on moonless nights. He set subtle snares for rabbits and pigeons. He purified water with a small filter from his old survival kit, its charcoal long since replaced by birch charcoal he made himself. His uniform frayed, then became a patchwork of civilian scraps dyed with mud and bark. His rifle, an old AK-74, was kept oiled with rendered animal fat, its ammunition counted and recounted: 127 rounds. He would not fire unless directly discovered.

His existence was a dialogue with silence. He tracked the patrol schedules of the irregular militias that controlled the area, mapping their routines in a waterlogged notebook. He witnessed the slow decay of the world he knew: a farmhouse burning, then being reclaimed by ivy; a road cratered, then patched, then crumbling again. He saw conscripts, pale and nervous, smoking at checkpoints, and hardened veterans with vacant eyes. To Yura, they were all the enemy, not out of hatred, but because his mission, seared into his soul, was to not be found. Leaflets promising amnesty, news of Minsk agreements, rumors of full-scale war in 2022, these were enemy propaganda, tricks to lure him from the forest.

His only encounters were spectral. Once, a stray dog, as thin and wary as he, became a silent companion for a season before disappearing. Another time, he watched from a treetop as an old woman, one of the last "starichki" in a near-ghost village, left a bowl of potatoes and a cross carved from birch wood at the edge of the woods, as if sensing a forest spirit. He took the food at midnight, leaving a carefully whittled bird figure in return.

The end came not with a battle, but with a bureaucratic mundanity. In the autumn of 2024, a new unit of the National Guard, conducting a mine-clearing and terrain survey, sent a drone deep into a neglected swampy sector. Its thermal sensor picked up the faint, consistent heat signature of a human body, perfectly still, beneath a woven mat of reeds and thermal foil.

They surrounded the area, not with shouts, but with a loudspeaker. A psychologist, trained for such moments, spoke calmly, endlessly. "The war is different now. The front is there, to the south and east. Your village is free. Your order is rescinded. Sergeant Kovalenko, your service is complete. You can come home."

For two days and nights, Yura remained motionless in his kryivka, convinced it was an elaborate ruse. On the third morning, driven by a fatigue deeper than hunger, he emerged. He was a figure from another time: bearded, gaunt, his eyes squinting against the unfamiliar sunlight of the open field. He wore a tattered mix of camouflage and homemade felt, his rifle held high, but with no round in the chamber: a final point of honor.

The young soldiers stared, not in fear, but in awe and confusion. Here was a relic, a living ghost from the war's first, forgotten chapter.

Yura saluted the officer. "Sergeant Kovalenko, reporting. I have maintained my position and observed the enemy. I request permission to stand down."

The officer, understanding the profound echo in those words, returned the salute solemnly. "Permission granted, soldier. The war for this land… has moved on. Your watch is over."

Only then, as the weight of a decade lifted, did Yura's rifle finally slip from his hands. His war, a solitary decade-long patrol born of a refusal to fight, was finally, truly, over. The forest he had defended so fiercely now stood silent, holding his secret history in its roots.

This post was edited by Norlander on Dec 23 2025 11:28am
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Dec 24 2025 09:17am
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