44% is insanely high...that's Clinton's peak during the 2008 primaries! What this says is that if Trump wants the nomination, it's his. You're making a very poor assumption that the remaining 56% will support another candidate over Trump. Suppose Trump's opponent is Marco Rubio and no one else. Do you really think Rubio would get that entire 56%? Only 32% of Republicans want Trump to go away!

Trump is in a better position now than he was in 2016 and the "establishment" is considerably weaker than it was then. No one in their right mind is going to risk their careers going against Trump from the GOP side.

Name the person. Trump IS the establishment.

The poll quite literally says that 56% of GOP voters do not want Trump to be their nominee again. So it will come down to them being offered a suitable alternative.


Of course a lot will come down to the alternative guy being widely acceptable to these voters. If no such candidate can be found, the nomination will indeed be Trump's. I do not, however, consider it impossible to find such a guy. Or for Trump's standing with GOP voters to slip further between now and 2023 when the invisible primary will begin.

By the way, you're making the mirror error of the one you just accused me of: 32% of Republicans wanting Trump to go away does not necessarily mean that they would accept ANY alternative over him. I'm fairly sure that even among these 32%, a bunch would prefer Trump over, say, Ted Cruz or Caitlyn Jenner.

DeSantis - a VERY trump-like figure, but less unhinged, more savvy and capable, with actual executive experience (which was well received by the GOP base).

is this cute wordplay or something? he may be the most notable potential candidate right now that could run as a Republican. he alsohas no actual political power, the swamp creature idiots that run the political party hate him, and he is barred from wielding his go-to, once ruthlessly efficient personal armada (social media outreach)

the swamp and foreign powers coalesced for four years for one sole purpose - to defeat him in 2020. they even wrote an analysis article on it called “fortifying the 2020 election”


he will need Trump’s nod to pull it off - Trump can play kingmaker here. personally i think this is the more prudent path (as of this post).

DeSantis has shown mettle in dealing with the ridiculous pariah that is the media and has effectively sparred with the harris/biden admin. That said it is a tall order to capture the bravado and unfettered energy Trump had in his first election and the first 2 1/2 years of his term.

Hes still very young. Might be best to wait a cycle. Rubio ran way too early and he got kamehameha’d to the sun. The swamps hold on things is still VERY strong. Who knows how things will be after 2 years from now though

This post was edited by excellence on Oct 6 2021 09:36pm

If Trump runs, DeSantis won't run. He's too smart to risk his entire political career against a very popular former President.



I'm not making that assumption at all actually. Of the 22% who want him to remain a major political figure, I imagine that a lot of them would choose Trump over an alternative. In addition, of the 32% who don't want him to be a part of politics any more, there will be some portion that find Trump more suitable over an alternative. Perhaps if you have a scenario where Tim Scott AND DeSantis run against Trump (and no one else), then you could end up in a scenario where Trump doesn't get the plurality but I certainly wouldn't bet on that happening. Then there's the whole thing where Trump is vindictive enough where he might run as an independent to make the GOP candidate lose but we can cross that bridge if the time comes.

McCarthy is begging to work with Trump, a Trumper is in charge of the GOP conference, and the head of the RNC was handpicked by Trump. If that's not the establishment, I don't know WTF is. I really don't know how you can say he has "no political power" when everyone is tripping over themselves to do their best Kamala Harris dick sucking impression.

I agree with your analysis that DeSantis should wait, especially if Biden is the 2024 nominee and likely to be renominated since he's an incumbent. DeSantis is very young, will have another 4 years as governor under his belt, and could easily beat Kamala.

They did a great job last time!



He is uniquely charismatic in his support, but also in his dislike. It is almost impossible to predict when he is involved.

This post was edited by EndlessSky on Oct 6 2021 10:43pm

lol. he cant do anything by himself so he needs the guy who put him in his current position back. “Waaah boss please come back i cant do my job i wanted and you gave me” it’s a little circular logic there. The GOPe is stupid, they want Trump’s benefits without anything else as if it’s possible

and yeah Desantis has a prime example in his own backyard on not running too early picking the right time to run. They (media) make him out to be adolf/atilla or something but he’s balanced encouraging vaccinations while trying to preserve individual choice on masks and avoiding shutdowns. More executive office time might benefit him. A relatively inexperienced Obama was able to fend off the presumptive nominee Clinton yes - but that was a primary and generational one-off

Obama was a generational political talent who got to the WH before he was ready, resulting in a presidency which wasted almost all of the potential it had. He also benefitted from running against Hillary, a uniquely loathsome individual who wouldn't even have made it out of county-level politics without the connection to her popular husband.





Regarding the "DeSantis should wait another cycle"-argument that both you and brought up: I'm not sure this argument is convincing. There is no guarantee whatsoever that his brand of being "Trump-lite" or the stand-in for "trumpism without Trump" will be in as much demand in 2028 as it will be in 2024, particularly in case Democrats win the presidential race in 2024 (which they would presumably be favored to do if Trump is the nominee again). Say Trump runs again in 2024, loses again - wouldn't that be the point when the party actually moves away from trumpism and goes either the Tom Cotton or the Nikki Hayley route?

DeSantis is not a political rockstar whose time will come sooner or later no matter what. I genuinely don't believe that his stock will ever be higher than in 2022-24. Yes, it would be super risky to go against Trump in the 2024 primary, but I believe that his presidential ambitions are toast either way if he doesn't seize the moment. What does he have to lose by that point?

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 7 2021 09:04am