Quote (bogie160 @ 5 Mar 2023 21:26)

As is, Ukraine will share a border with Russia. Belarus is already a Russian controlled puppet state. Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova are incredibly poor places, whether they're under the Russian thumb or not means a great deal to their people, but not to the rest of us.

It's very unlikely that Russia would invade Poland, because as we've seen their military lacks the means to conquer a far weaker opponent, and the Poles are backed by NATO arms and guarantees.

Russia calculated that they could win in Ukraine quickly and present a fait accompli to Western leaders. They are not going to invoke article 5 by invading Latvia (the most likely candidate) because they're well aware that they would lose that war. There's a difference between attacking a "neutral" country no has pledged to defend, and invading a country in formal alliance with the world's leading powers.

I accept and agree with the point around Taiwan. It's important to demonstrate that the United States will defend even certain non-treaty members. But that could be done by ending strategic ambiguity and formalizing a defense treaty with Taiwan. I sympathize with Ukraine, but I don't see it as an essential US interest.

Quote (Ironfister @ Mar 6 2023 05:25pm)

Lets say that Putin attacks Latvia and says: "guys this is not an attack on NATO, we simply don't consider Latvia as a part of NATO as you guys didnt ask Russia for permission to invite Latvia."
What will peaceful western NATO countries do? Will they gladly go to war with Russia? or they would rather let Russians do what they want in Latvia? Sure that will be little humilating to them, but its not that big deal really. They will probably find some pity excuse "oh, we are not ready this year to go to war, we will go in 2 years, hold on Latvia we will come help you in 2 years!"
It really depends who will be USA president. Biden thinks a big picture, he knows that USA is a leading world power because it leads the whole western World.
Unfortunately Trump not so much, Trump would gladly disband NATO and just let Russia eat Europe.
USA alone is only like 300mln people, its the western world alliance that makes USA leading world power.

Quote (bogie160 @ 6 Mar 2023 23:51)

How well did that work out for Germany when it declared on Russia in the first world war? That war was mostly Russia's fault, and yet France still dutifully declared because it was in their strategic interests to do so. The United States has a very significant strategic interest in maintaining its credibility overseas, especially because that credibility is directly tied to the security of Japan, America's most important ally. It's not "no big deal", it's a very big deal. The United States's position in East Asia would evaporate as China concludes it can walk over the United States, and regional partners conclude that American promises mean nothing.

Quote (MSX98 @ Mar 30 2023 09:27am)

Quote (Crunkt @ Mar 30 2023 10:27am)

Quote (Crunkt @ 30 Mar 2023 19:27)

Quote (Crunkt @ Mar 30 2023 01:27pm)

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Mar 31 2023 02:18pm)

Actually no contradiction. The argument is that Biden is a dementia-ridden figurehead for the DNC operatives who are actually running the show. They are the ones who are trying to sneak in or force through this shitty agenda which is ruining the country, all while Biden dreams about ice cream, 'racial jungles' and the scent of 9-year olds.