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Poll > Trump 2020 > Trump Vs. Pack O' Dems
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Jun 22 2021 07:50pm
Quote (bogie160 @ 23 Jun 2021 03:29)
It's as different as I said it is. That doesn't mean that it isn't normal for voters to prefer the previous nominee at this point in time. Trump's control over the party dissipates with time. He has virtually no media presence. He needs to rekindle all of the old magic, and he needs to do it without all of the tools that enabled him to communicate effectively with his supporters. Finally, he lost. He's a loser. Republican voters want to win. Trump cannot win.

Now, is there still some chance, or a good chance that Trump crashes through all of these obstacles and wins? Of course. But that's far from certain, and providing his endorsement (which he would do anyway) would be Trump acknowledging that he cannot win.


I agree with you, but the bolded part is the crux. IF a majority of the Republican primary electorate genuinely believes that Trump "won" in 2020 and was cheated out of his victory, then this argument falls apart and turns into a plus for Trump because GOP voters would want to see him get his redemption.

Now, I do not think that the "big lie" really has majority support among the GOP faithful, but I'm not entirely sure about that.
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Jun 22 2021 07:53pm
Quote (IceMage @ 22 Jun 2021 21:14)
Also willing to take FG bets on this. 1.7k FG bet on if Trump enters the primary, he wins. He has to be officially running for 2 months.

lol no one is going to gamble with a coward like you. what your awful odds on the mueller investigation?? (which lefties like you denied the outcome on!!)

you refused many straight-up bets because you wanted like 3:1 or 4:1 odds in your favor lmfao
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 22 Jun 2021 21:25)
I think you really overestimate the degree to which GOP support for Trump is tied to Trump the person rather than what he symbolizes. All polls of Republican rank and file show a consistent pattern: support for Trump's policies is significantly higher than support for Trump the person.

To beat him in a primary, the forces in the party which do not want him to be the nominee again would have to rally around an alternative which can credibly carry the torch. That's not trivial, but far from impossible.

yeah the resistance would be 3-fold compared to 2016. mittens would be giving a speech every fucking day the idiot that he is


Quote (bogie160 @ 22 Jun 2021 21:29)
It's as different as I said it is. That doesn't mean that it isn't normal for voters to prefer the previous nominee at this point in time. Trump's control over the party dissipates with time. He has virtually no media presence. He needs to rekindle all of the old magic, and he needs to do it without all of the tools that enabled him to communicate effectively with his supporters. Finally, he lost. He's a loser. Republican voters want to win. Trump cannot win.

Now, is there still some chance, or a good chance that Trump crashes through all of these obstacles and wins? Of course. But that's far from certain, and providing his endorsement (which he would do anyway) would be Trump acknowledging that he cannot win.

yeah trump’s influence is simply overstated by his opponents because they need a boogeyman.

republicans, by nature in recent years (post Reagan) are losers. they stink it up all over the place. but they want to lose so they dont care. yeah GWB won twice - but the only winners there were halliburton and lockheed. yeah gop got landslides in 2010 and 2014, got them absolutely fuck all legislation-wise until Trump said tax cuts now in 2017-2018

Trump wanted to win and that ticked off the gop establishment and rino horde
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Jun 22 2021 11:20pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 22 2021 09:25pm)
I think you really overestimate the degree to which GOP support for Trump is tied to Trump the person rather than what he symbolizes. All polls of Republican rank and file show a consistent pattern: support for Trump's policies is significantly higher than support for Trump the person.

To beat him in a primary, the forces in the party which do not want him to be the nominee again would have to rally around an alternative which can credibly carry the torch. That's not trivial, but far from impossible.




That's about the best summation I've seen so far. ^^
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Jun 23 2021 06:33am
Quote (excellence @ 23 Jun 2021 03:53)
yeah trump’s influence is simply overstated by his opponents because they need a boogeyman.

republicans, by nature in recent years (post Reagan) are losers. they stink it up all over the place. but they want to lose so they dont care. yeah GWB won twice - but the only winners there were halliburton and lockheed. yeah gop got landslides in 2010 and 2014, got them absolutely fuck all legislation-wise until Trump said tax cuts now in 2017-2018

Trump wanted to win and that ticked off the gop establishment and rino horde

well said. it should also be noted that GWB really only won twice because he got lucky. in 2000, Gore completely shit the bed in an election he never should have lost, coming off of the most profound economic boom in post-war history and all that. in 2004, Bush was still riding that post-9/11 and post-"mission accomplished" high.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 23 2021 06:34am
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Jun 26 2021 06:18pm
Quote (IceMage @ 27 Jun 2021 01:51)


Oh look, yet another incredibly slanted piece from Adam Serwer in which he rails against Republican attempts at changing election laws to their benefit, declares the GOP a threat to democracy and uses this as a justification for his calls on Democrats to pass "structural reforms" which would entrench Democratic power. "The other side is such an existential threat to democracy that we have to contort democracy/rig the system to ensure that they never get into power again."

Also, why is he so in love with his favorite buzzword of "multiracial democracy"? It's prominently featured in every single one of the 17 or 24 or so articles that he has written since the election. Time for the guy to find a new shtick, this one is getting old.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 26 2021 06:20pm
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Jun 26 2021 06:21pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 26 2021 08:18pm)
Oh look, yet another incredibly slanted piece from Adam Serwer in which he rails against Republican attempts at changing election laws to their benefit, declares the GOP a threat to democracy and uses this as a justification for his calls on Democrats to pass "structural reforms" which would entrench Democratic power. "The other side is such an existential threat to democracy that we have to contort democracy/rig the system to ensure that they never get into power again."

Also, why is he so in love with his favorite buzzword of "multiracial democracy"? It's prominently featured in every single one of the 17 or 24 or so articles that he has written since the election. Time for the guy to find a new shtick, this one is getting old.



They dont play fair and never did.

Shut them out forever while we still can.
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Jun 26 2021 06:54pm
Trump out on the road supporting the Holocaust denying jew laser genius. Figures
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Jun 26 2021 07:59pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 26 2021 05:18pm)
Oh look, yet another incredibly slanted piece from Adam Serwer in which he rails against Republican attempts at changing election laws to their benefit, declares the GOP a threat to democracy and uses this as a justification for his calls on Democrats to pass "structural reforms" which would entrench Democratic power. "The other side is such an existential threat to democracy that we have to contort democracy/rig the system to ensure that they never get into power again."

Also, why is he so in love with his favorite buzzword of "multiracial democracy"? It's prominently featured in every single one of the 17 or 24 or so articles that he has written since the election. Time for the guy to find a new shtick, this one is getting old.


Cry me a river. Just have better ideas and this would be a nonissue. If Republicans can't sell their version of populism to America, why do they deserve to be in power? Likewise, if Democrats can't sell their version of liberalism, why do they deserve to be in power?
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Jun 26 2021 09:43pm
Quote (thundercock @ 27 Jun 2021 03:59)
Cry me a river. Just have better ideas and this would be a nonissue. If Republicans can't sell their version of populism to America, why do they deserve to be in power? Likewise, if Democrats can't sell their version of liberalism, why do they deserve to be in power?


With identity politics running rampant in the U.S., and with the electorate being deeply and sharply polarized along demographic lines, the impact of persuasion and ideas is extremely limited. It most definitely is impossible for the GOP to persuade enough people to overcome the Democrats' larger base. Let me put it like this: in an environment with 100% turnout, the GOP would never win a national election again, at least not as long as the coalitions are configured the way they are at the moment.





Btw, fun fact: according to CNN exit poll data, Trump won voters who mostly decided based on the candidates' issue positions by a decent margin in 2020, it's just that he lost the quarter of the electorate which mostly voted on the personal qualities of the candidates by a 2-1 margin:

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results
In this sense, one could argue that voters thought Trump had the better ideas than Biden in 2020 - but it was not enough to overcome their rejection of his personality.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 26 2021 09:47pm
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