Lol. Did you have all these qualifiers in mind when you wrote the original post? At this point it's "they found the most popular MAGA female who doesn't talk about Jewish space lasers and the media doesn't talk about her much".

Yeah, you're trying to game out the best case scenario, while holding onto the ridiculous idea that Trump isn't the favorite for 2024. Trump's election nonsense is going to be a distraction in 2022 and 2024, whether he runs for president again or not.

It's also worth thinking about how his lies will influence votes in the future. If he runs again in 2024, or even if he doesn't and endorses somebody, and he or they lose, will Republican turnout drop because they think it's all rigged? Could Trump usher in a Democratic majority for years to come?

This post was edited by IceMage on Jun 22 2021 06:33pm

I had the "draw as little attention to Trump's idiocy as possible"-part in mind from the very beginning. That's the major consideration here, the list with the other qualifiers was just a tangent.



We will keep disagreeing on Trump in 2024 and will have to wait and see who was right. I already laid out my arguments for Trump not being nearly as much of a shoe-in for 2024 than he appears right now. The short version:

1. Age, legal troubles and the fear of losing (again) are potentially strong arguments for Trump to not seek the nomination
2. Without an elected office or social media, Trump will struggle to stay as ubiquitous
3. As time goes on, Biden's policies and the opposition by Republican office holders will dominate the news cycle; attention will move toward other Republican candidates as we approach the midterms
4. The party apparatus will definitely want to go with a "Trumpism without Trump"- candidate in 2024, rather than the man who just lost a very winnable race, cost his party control of the Senate and then incited an insurrection. They will rightfully fear that Trump would be a nuclear candidate to the wider public and cause them to lose the election in a landslide, dragging the rest of the party down with him. Therefore, the RNC will quickly coalesce around an alternative to Trump at the start of the primary season, and then do everything in its power to tip the scales in favor of their preferred candidate and against Trump.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 22 2021 06:44pm

which is fine. sanctions helped cause economic damages to “the enemy” which is good for most people who want America to succeed. no “flexibility after the election” issues.

now harris/biden play nice in exchange for nothing

If Trump decides to run in the 2024 Republican primary, what percentage chance do you give him to win the Republican nomination?

This post was edited by IceMage on Jun 22 2021 07:00pm

It has been 6 months since Biden took office. It is normal for a party, at this point, to like the previous nominee. It was the same with Romney in 2012, and Romney had far less sway with his party, and never led a successful campaign.

Ron Desantis will win over Trump in 2024.

If you don't understand how Trump's influence over the party is fundamentally different from a "previous nominee" or even "previous president", nothing I say could change your mind. There's a vast information gap that I don't think can be fixed.

There's nobody who can beat Trump in the primary. He's either going to run and win it, or give his endorsement to somebody. The odds of Trump running in 2024 and losing the primary are almost zero.. it would take him getting in absurdly late or almost dying on camera.

Also willing to take FG bets on this. 1.7k FG bet on if Trump enters the primary, he wins. He has to be officially running for 2 months.

This post was edited by IceMage on Jun 22 2021 07:15pm

75% conditional on him running, with the chance for him running in the first place being around 50:50. So all in all, as of today, I would put the probability of him being the nominee at slightly less than 40%.
A month ago, when we were first discussing this topic, I had this number a bit lower, at about 30%.



For the record: most of my arguments are based on the factor time. I dont deny that if the GOP had to hold a primary today, or even next month, Trump's chance of being the nominee would be north of 90%.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 22 2021 07:18pm

I think you really overestimate the degree to which GOP support for Trump is tied to Trump the person rather than what he symbolizes. All polls of Republican rank and file show a consistent pattern: support for Trump's policies is significantly higher than support for Trump the person.

To beat him in a primary, the forces in the party which do not want him to be the nominee again would have to rally around an alternative which can credibly carry the torch. That's not trivial, but far from impossible.

It's as different as I said it is. That doesn't mean that it isn't normal for voters to prefer the previous nominee at this point in time. Trump's control over the party dissipates with time. He has virtually no media presence. He needs to rekindle all of the old magic, and he needs to do it without all of the tools that enabled him to communicate effectively with his supporters. Finally, he lost. He's a loser. Republican voters want to win. Trump cannot win.

Now, is there still some chance, or a good chance that Trump crashes through all of these obstacles and wins? Of course. But that's far from certain, and providing his endorsement (which he would do anyway) would be Trump acknowledging that he cannot win.