Quote (SharpNips @ 12 Aug 2022 14:47)
It motivates his base and alienates traditional republicans. He needs them more than he needs his base that would vote for him even if he died.
The bulk of traditional or mainstream Republicans (those who fall between the hardcore MAGA-acolytes like Jim Jordan/MTG and the Cheney/Kinzinger NeverTrumpers) have sided with Trump on this one and publicly come out in his defense. (Whether folks like McConnell, Pence or Hayley really believe what they're saying or just cynically try to exploit this story to rile up the base even further, ahead of the midterms, is a different story.)
Quote (RedFromWinter @ 12 Aug 2022 15:00)
This motivates much more than his regular base and will accelerate the dwindling of non-Trump Republicans like Liz Cheney. I don't think he needs those types, especially when there is opportunity to pickup votes from those frustrated with Brandon
Quote (SharpNips @ 12 Aug 2022 16:22)
For sure
All I’m saying is this latest news cycle isn’t gaining him (trump) votes as some people have referenced
Imo
With regard to a general election, this will not win Trump many new voters in the middle, but it could help him at the margins by bringing some wavering, Trump-sceptic Republican voters back into his fold - a group with which he has shown some weakness in both 2016 and 2020.
Where it tremendously helps him is with regard to a potential primary for the presidential nomination. This investigation gives him a ton of spotlight, allows him to portray himself as the victim of a rigged witch hunt, and it makes his radical plans for cleaning house upon coming back to power seem more justified and palatable to moderate Republicans. If this investigation ends up with a conviction of Trump, DeSantis is the big winner. If it does not (which seems far more likely), then whatever underdog chance DeSantis had of wresting the nomination from Trump goes down even further.
With regard to the midterms, it's imho hard to tell what the political implication of this will be. On the one hand, it amps up Republican voters even more, but on the other hand, it puts Trump back into the spotlight. Every news cycle dominated by Trump rather than by the shortcomings of the Biden admin is a good news cycle for Democrats. Imho, it would be foolish to try predict which of these counteracting effects will be stronger in the end.