We've been over this before...
Opinion polls are always a snapshot in time, not a prediction for the future. Yes, if there was a GOP primary held today, Trump would of course win it with ease. Doesn't mean he will still be in the same spots two and a half years from now.
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My core line of thinking is the following:
- Trump will get older and lower energy (sad!)
- He will eventually fade from the news cycles a little bit. At the moment, we're still in the woes of 6/1 in a sense, the media is still coming off its sugar high from the trump years, and the Biden admin is so sleepy and boring that it's providing very little distraction.
- He has lost most of his platforms. Kicked out of the bully pulpit by sleepy joe (sad!) and kicked off of social media (wtf?!). To garner the attention on which he feeds, he is at the mercy of right-wing media outlets. If their owners decide that it is in their best interest for someone else to be the GOP standard bearer in 2024, they could deprive him of his media oxygen anytime they want. I, personally, believe that most people still underestimate how much Trump's ability to directly communicate with his followers via his twitter account was the true source of his power.
- He already lost in 2020, and that was in spite of the power of incumbency, before he started an insurrection and before his selfish and pointless antics cost his party the Senate. By now, he personally is nuclear to a majority of the country - as long as Biden can somewhat keep it together, a Biden/Trump rematch in 2024 would end in a total disaster for the GOP. At the same time, poll after poll shows that Trump's policies are more popular with the Republican rank and file than the person.
Therefore, GOP elites and strategists can clearly have no interest in Trump running again. What they want is Trump's platform, but with a more savvy and sane messenger, someone who is capable of self-restraint, strategic thinking and competent governance. They are definitely consulting and deliberating how to prevent Trump from becoming the nominee again as I write this. They will coalesce around an alternative candidate and throw all their institutional power and influence behind that person. In other words: the deck will be stacked against Trump once again. But unlike in 2016, his opponent will not be a JEB! or a Kasich type of guy whose policies and lack of fight the base hates, and Trump will not be able to inspire limitless hope because he's a known commodity.
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But like I said before: what do I know - I'm just a foreign voyeur with a strange obsession for politics
who doesnt listen to Fox News or American talk radio. Maybe it is indeed me who's completely out of touch with the base. Time will tell.
This is why we disagree. I DO listen to these things and they control the narrative. The polling trend is that MORE Republicans are buying into "The Big Lie" and it's because it's reinforced by the media they consume. To me, the actions of McConnell and McCarthy indicate that they believe that embracing conspiracy theories and lies is advantageous to them because it resonates with the people.
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