thats mean finally some justice in the world

According to exit polls, Biden won college-educated whites by 3% in 2020, with white college-educated men still being won by Trump by 3%. And that was in the midst of a huge national crisis during which Trump had completely failed as a leader.

All in all, I'm with bogie that progressive, college-educated whites make up a huge chunk of the Dem activists and enjoy outsized influence on the platform and messaging of the party. The big problem for Democrats is that a lot of the preferences of this group are toxic with both white and most non-white working-class voters - be it wokism, a SALT cap repeal, a massive expansion of the federal bureaucracy, sacrificing significant amounts of wealth for climate policy, etc.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election#Exit_polling

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 23 2022 12:13pm

Which is terrible for Republicans because they haven't lost that demographic in 65 YEARS prior to 2020. That's an existential threat to the Republican party in the same way that losing Hispanics is an existential threat to the Democrats. In short, the parties in their current form will not exist and will be forced to have drastically different policies if they don't shape up.

There's no question that progressives have some toxic policies and I'm of the opinion that the Democrats should throw certain marginalized groups under the bus. You obviously can't throw blacks under the bus since they are a sizeable voting bloc but I do think throwing LGBT folks under the bus is a prudent strategy. I don't care if every trans teen ends up killing themselves due to bullying as long it contributes to victory. Protecting them benefits less than 0.1% of the population and we already have hate crime legislation. We don't need to spend additional resources on them.

Keeping a presence in the suburbs is important for the party's long term health, but it's not equivalent. College educated whites aren't spread efficiently. It's not important electorally that Hillary racked up dominant wins among Californian whites, the same number of electors vote either way. Democrats are harping on the electoral college and the popular vote because they've completely boxed themselves out of what were key swing states.

Those same swing states don't have a significant number of Hispanics though. In addition, Hispanics have been boxed into specific Congressional districts so the number of House seats that the GOP can win due to this movement isn't very much. Alternatively, white suburbs have A LOT of Congressional districts so it's a descent trade for now. I've always been of the opinion that winning both Hispanics and college educated whites has been key to the long term success of the Republican party and I don't know why they don't go for BOTH.

Scamming the country with vote harvesting schemes would probably be easier. They're so fucking lazy, it pisses me off.

Democrats didn't lose non-college whites by the landslide margins seen since 2016 either. In terms of the popular vote, the "great Trump voter swap" was a wash, but it tremendously increased the efficiency of the GOP coalition in the EC and the Senate.



A movement of hispanics to the GOP would take the threat of Texas or Florida turning blue off the table and thus remove an electoral checkmate option. Hispanics are also a crucial voter block in the swing states of Arizona and Nevada. In Wisconsin, the swap of college whites for non-college whites is beneficial to the GOP. The big wild card imho is Pennsylvania where "trumpy" rust belt regions and the anti-trump Philly suburbs cancel each other out. Still, relative to the nation, PA continued to move slightly to the right in 2020.

The one place where the outlook is imho grim for the GOP is Georgia. It will be a swing state in 2022 and 2024, but by the end of the decade, it will have gone the way of Virginia or Colorada and vote reliably blue in federal races.
I agree with you that as of today, the structural disadvantage of Democrats seems the least pronounced in the House.



edit: winning hispanics and college whites at the same time seems very difficult to me. Hispanics tend to be economically left-leaning and socially conservative, while the suburban and/or college whites tend to be center-left on economic issues, but giga-woke on social and cultural issues.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 23 2022 05:42pm

Don't forget North Carolina either. I think that has a much higher chance of going blue than Florida at this point. Here is one possible map where the Dems lose NV, AZ, WI, and FL: https://www.270towin.com/maps/PQAnr
They even have room to spare losing either GA or NC. I don't think we're at a point where either side has a huge advantage but I still bet on the Dems in 2024 because of GOP priorities (i.e. Hunter Biden is more important than inflation). The GOP is very very good at pointing out problems but they are really bad at solutions. On the other hand, a lot of the solutions that the Dems propose are terrible but they tend to be popular (i.e. reigning in the cost of prescription drugs, universal pre-K, etc.)

I 100% agree with you that the Senate outlook is bad for the Dems. Once the incumbents are old enough, I don't see the Dems winning red states with new blood.

This is the most likely winning map for Trump/DeSantis in 2024:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/rQ1m8

And you are right, the GOP can only afford losing PA if they win both NC and GA. They might be able to pull it off in 2024, but from 2028 and beyond, I expect PA to be a more winnable state for them than GA. But we'll probably see another soft realignment by then, predicting this far into the future is a fool's errand.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 23 2022 06:15pm