Quote (TheOnlyDenny @ Jul 20 2022 04:46pm)

How are Republicans going to win a presidential election against demographics that say White Americans will be a minority by the year 2045?

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 20 2022 11:38pm)

And it should be noted that the GOP doesn't even need to win hispanics by wide margins like they do with white voters - all they need to do is break even with hispanics and the Democratic pipe dreams about their "emerging Democratic/demographic majority" go up in smokes.

Hispanics are not a monolithic block of voters, there are significant variations. Generally speaking, hispanics in places like CA or NY are more liberal than those in other states. Hence, if hispanics became a 50:50 demo nationally, it would imply that hispanics in TX, FL, NC and places like that actually lean slightly toward the GOP, so that a rising hispanics share of the population suddenly helps the GOP in these states.



True, but they would need to adapt in a way that risks their recent gains in upscale suburbs. They would need to either embrace more economic populism or tone down the wokism significantly. Yes, in the long run, they'll figure it out, but in 2024, their only saving grace would be a Trump candidacy. And if the GOP is stupid enough to nominate him once again, they deserve to lose.

Quote (thundercock @ 21 Jul 2022 08:43)

Let's make it interesting: I'll bet you 3k fg right now that the Dems get a TRIFECTA in 2024.

Quote (thundercock @ Jul 20 2022 11:43pm)

Democrats are going to easily win in 2024. Have you seen what the House GOP is planning on doing? It's going to be fucking embarrassing.

Let's make it interesting: I'll bet you 3k fg right now that the Dems get a TRIFECTA in 2024.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 20 2022 11:45pm)

Deal!
I say that they will NOT get a trifecta in 2024.

Quote (thundercock @ 21 Jul 2022 08:49)

^Santara

Please remember this. No need to hold onto the fg for this long.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jul 20 2022 11:59pm)

Just out of curiosity: a high info guy like you is surely aware of the BRUTAL senate map that Democrats face in 2024. Why are you that confident that Democrats can overcome it? Silly spectacle in Congress has never moved the needle too much, so even if the GOP House majority will be embarrassing, I have a hard time imaging how it could make a big enough difference.

Given the Senate map, your bet is toast if inflation is still high in 2024, or if the economy is still in recession, or if someone other than Trump is the GOP nominee, or if the GOP takes the Senate in the midterms and enters 2024 with a cushion - and even if none of these things happen, there's still a very good chance that Democrats cannot win the Senate in 2024.

Quote (thundercock @ Jul 21 2022 12:15am)

I expect the Dems to run up the score in 2022 (expecting 52 seats).

Montana and West Virginia are really tough but the Democrats have great candidates with Manchin and Tester.
The next tier would be Ohio but Sherrod Brown is an excellent candidate and won't be insanely old.
Arizona (I expect that bad ass Hispanic dude to primary Sinema), Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have solid candidates.

Given that the number of competitive districts shrunk, the GOP won't be able to run up the score much even though it should be an excellent year for them. I predict that they'll have less than 230 seats (218 required for a majority).

Trump is the GOP's strongest candidate and is polling better than Biden at the moment. If it's NOT Trump, the GOP is in trouble because both Biden and Harris would beat DeSantis (ostensibly the 2nd best candidate) easily. The only one who could lose to DeSantis is Gavin Newsom and it's hilarious to watch liberals push for him. I'd really like to see Tim Scott be the GOP nominee but I don't think that will happen.

Quote (thundercock @ Jul 21 2022 02:43am)

Democrats are going to easily win in 2024. Have you seen what the House GOP is planning on doing? It's going to be fucking embarrassing.

Let's make it interesting: I'll bet you 3k fg right now that the Dems get a TRIFECTA in 2024.