Quote (zorzin @ 20 Feb 2024 12:20)
The Saudis won't do anything besides demanding a two state solution and turkey would suspend trade with israel but none of them will intervene military.
The big worry is what's happening in syria/iraq. The irgc proxies are running wild; bombing American bases every other day. If syria/iraq falls, then iran has a direct land route to supply hezb.
Another issue is the displaced Palestinians in jordan/Lebanon. There's enough of them that if Israel invaded Lebanon they might be bold enough to try attacking from the west bank/Jordan.
The sunni leadership is bought and paid for but some of the million man marches in turkey prove that it's a very difficult situation and the people may actually revolt if Israel goes ham in rafah (still unlikely though)
All I can say is that if a war breaks out in the north, the Israeli air force better show the world that Israel is still capable of threat deterrence
To be clear, I don't believe the Turks would invade, that's not their style. They may fancy themselves as in the best position to rebuild and lead the Caliphate, but that's not really a thing.
What I would have greater expectation of is that they do what they've been doing for the last decade. Israel pisses them off? They open the floodgates and suddenly you have 10 million additional fighting aged males volunteering on behalf of the enemy of their enemy.
My primary thought regarding the Saudis is that as the spiritual center of Islam, would they be willing to sit back and do nothing as Iran, who claim to be the TRUE spiritual center, wages holy war against the hated Jewish infidel?
Some of the theocratic struggle in the region, to my mind, may force disparate and often at-odds portions of the Islamic world to band together. Doesn't mean they'd win, but it would severely increase the pressure on Israel, no?