How will Iran react to a bombing campaign and ground invasion of southern Lebanon? Hell, how would the Saudis and Turkey react?

In a vacuum, your solution sounds doable. Flipside being that it's not a vacuum, and there are other major players who won't directly act against Israel over Gaza, who may very well be willing to directly involve themselves over an invasion of Lebanon.

Would Israel move without UN support, and are they capable of surviving a potential Iran/Saudi/Turkish backlash if they do?

I don't expect Turkey to engage in direct warfare against Israel. The West still has significant influence on them due to NATO and their EU aspirations. And they're cowards anyway. What Turkey will undoubtedly do if the situation between Hezbollah and Israel escalates is to seize the opportunity and take even more territory in northern Syria and Iraq.

Btw, such an escalation would be absolutely catastrophic for Biden and his Democrats. The Gaza war divides their electoral coalition as is. If the region descends into a full-blown war between Israel and Arabs, the Biden admin would be stuck between a rock and a hard place. If they intervene on Israel's behalf, they can kiss their reelection prospects goodbye. If they let their ally fall, they risk losing all their credibility on the global stage. And will lose the support of a big chunk of American Jews, who are disproportionately represented among the donor class, the media and other kinds of functional elites.



The way the US government has lost most of its clout in Jerusalem and Riyadh under Biden is really coming back to haunt them.

None of these Arab states want the smoke. In reality what they are doing is making enough public noise to keep the domestic populaces satisfied. Most of these surrounding Muslim populations hate the Jews and want their governments to reflect that. It would be political suicide to say otherwise. Behind closed doors though, the leaders, they're all pragmatic. Egypt, Turkey, SA, none of them have anything to gain from actually getting into any sort of conflict either direct or indirect with Israel. They're not dumb, they know US fully backs Israel not matter what. So tl;dr, it's all posturing.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Feb 20 2024 12:40pm

100% agreed when it comes to the Sunni states in the region. But I'm not entirely sure the same logic applies to the Mullahs in Teheran. I could see them pull the trigger on a full-blown war between their disposable proxies and Israel. And in that situation, the pressure on the neighboring Sunni governments from their own population will grow a lot. And like I've said, Biden really doesn't want to be in a position where the US has to fully back Israel no matter what since it would be politically devastating to himself and his party. I don't expect the US to let Israel fall entirely, but I can imagine a feeble, belated US reaction.

You were wrong in every assumption you made which clearly shows you have no idea what you are talking about
Ofc we have answer for Hezbollah we chose not to escalate but once we do hezbollah will have a big trouble and you will whine about that too.

The Saudis won't do anything besides demanding a two state solution and turkey would suspend trade with israel but none of them will intervene military.

The big worry is what's happening in syria/iraq. The irgc proxies are running wild; bombing American bases every other day. If syria/iraq falls, then iran has a direct land route to supply hezb.

Another issue is the displaced Palestinians in jordan/Lebanon. There's enough of them that if Israel invaded Lebanon they might be bold enough to try attacking from the west bank/Jordan.

The sunni leadership is bought and paid for but some of the million man marches in turkey prove that it's a very difficult situation and the people may actually revolt if Israel goes ham in rafah (still unlikely though)

All I can say is that if a war breaks out in the north, the Israeli air force better show the world that Israel is still capable of threat deterrence

Lol your hatred blinds you my friend. I'm very "pro israel" when it comes to ACTUAL threats, especially from hezb. I find what you have done in Gaza, especially those cancerous tik tok videos, to be detestable.

I linked an article earlier from your own counter terrorism centre which backs up where I get my info from. It does a good job of highlighting the strengths/weaknesses from both sides. A war with hezb would be cataclysmic but I have never said that Israel isn't capable of defeating hezbollah

Proxy is not a computer game its people and shia muslims hate sunni muslims so to think they will help them is simply wrong.
Specially not facing Israel

It doesnt matter that you are “pro israel” you were simply wrong in every assumption you made so far.
You can linked article since october all were wrong and so are you.
War with Hezbollah will be a walk in the park

No leftleaf only brutal damage and no warning the amount of dead people will simply overwhelm them

This post was edited by Many_Names on Feb 20 2024 01:31pm

How are the tunnel rats doing?

I guess the sun never rises in a tunnel so fasting through Ramadan can be avoided.