Quote (ThatAlex @ 7 Nov 2018 12:52)
Overall and all things considered, I think tonight is a decent hold for Republicans and disappointing for Democrats. Yes, Democrats took the House and a decent chunk of gubernatorial races, but the Republicans did better than expected in the Senate. It looks like Tester might lose, too.
Control of the House can change in a political instant. But the Senate is the more powerful body and the gift that keeps on giving. It might take multiple cycles for Democrats to think about taking back the Senate now. Yesterday was a tough map for them, but 2020 doesn't look all that great either, with maybe 2-3 states that look like they could be flipped. GOP probably holds the Senate through at least 2022 now.
I mostly agree, but the real story imho lies on the state level. The democrats made significant inroads in most state legislatures, broke a ton of republican trifectas and gained some trifectas of their own. with the 2020 census and redistricting coming up, this could have a lasting impact for the decade to come.
And the ballot initiative granting felons who served their time their votings rights in Florida could also be huge - there are about 1 million people affected by this, and most of them are from democratic-leaning demographics. Even if turnout among those "re-enfranchised" people is low, this could add a net of about 100-200k votes to Democrats in statewide elections. In a state as close as Florida, this could have gigantic effects going forward. Had this amendment been in place since 2016, Trump might very well have lost Florida, and DeSantis and Scott would almost surely have lost tonight.