Quote (Mangix @ Mar 15 2016 12:39pm)
Whats hillary chilling at favorability wise? I can't really see a world in which she beats him, given the amount of young berntards that just won't show up to vote once he doesn't get the nomination / vote for trump instead because they hate her.
Essentially her rating is -12 and it's been there for the last 6 months. There's no comparison between that and -30 though, as polarization has increased to make everyone some form of unpopular. You also have to figure in the advertising climate: less than 1% of the Republican advertising budget pre-March was spent attacking Trump, the entire Republican apparatus has been attacking Clinton (both during this cycle, and for 25 years) while boosting Sanders), and 15 candidates lobbing attacks at Clinton while only 3 Democratic candidates returned fire at Trump. Add it up and he's 2-3x more unpopular than she is without the first Democratic ad to air or the oppo file even being opened.
I have no doubt that some Sanders supporters will refuse to donate/vote in November, but there won't be widespread sit-outs. You can see that measured in two places, the percent of people who are satisfied with both Clinton and Sanders, and the people who prefer Clinton to Trump. The latter is what's really astounding:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/03/14/poll-millennials-clinton-sanders-trump-president/81612520/Quote
In a hypothetical Clinton v. Trump contest in November, voters under 35 would choose Clinton by a crushing 52%-19%, a preference that crosses demographic lines. Among whites, she'd be backed by nearly 2-1, 45%-26%. Among Hispanics, by more than 4-1, 61%-14%. Among Asian Americans, by 5-1, 60%-11%. Among African Americans, by 13-1, 67%-5%.
Those are bigger than Obama-Romney numbers. The 18-29s are not going to allow someone with Donald Trump's rhetoric get on the ballot and then not turn out to vote against him. They're even choosing to
not vote in our primary just to vote against him right now.
As far as re: Trump and how his popularity has changed, he may have become more popular in YouGov's survey because their online-only (or mostly) methodology is one where I'd imagine he would clean up in, but you can tell the link above that in the overall picture the last 6 weeks haven't been kind to him -- he went from around -19% at the end of January to around -29% now. There will be an upswing if he indeed wins the Republican nomination because all presumptive nominees see their numbers improve at least a little bit, but he's among the least-popular presumptive nominees in modern political history, maybe the most-unpopular.
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