0 chance
Egypt doesnt use soviet gear anymore

This post was edited by Many_Names on Feb 12 2024 11:01am

Even then he wont make a move

Today the egyptian foreign affair minister said the peace with Israel lasted 40 years and we will keep it
We are doing our best to solve the conflict

Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry says Cairo has no intention of severing its peace treaty with Israel amid several reports that it threatened to do so over Israel’s planned operation in Rafah.



No one in right mind will operate in rafah before evacuating it.
At the beginning of the war the international community said that the Gazans don’t have anywhere to go, a false claim.
Afterwards they said that people will die from hunger. Again, false claim. I haven’t seen a single report about someone dying from hunger.
It seems to me that the international community don’t really care about the Palestinians and are saying what they say for their own interests. They have nothing to lose. If the prophesy doesn’t happen they can say that it’s because of their pressure on Israel and if it does they can always go for the “I told you so” line.
All that being said I’m happy that our gov is still doing what needs to be done and don’t give up for pressure from the outside.

Is it not true that many of the Gazans from the northern parts are now in Rafah?

If Gaza city is destroyed, Khan Younis is destroyed where do Gazans go if Rafah is evacuated?

Egypt is perpetually on the brink of civil war, keep in mind that the Muslim Brotherhood won when Egypt was for once having free elections back in 2013. Their military dictatorship doesn't have the support of the people and is super nervous about any destablizing events or events which could rile up the public. A million Palestinians storming the border out of desperation and then either entering Egypt, or the Egyptian military holding them back with sheer force, would both be this kind of event. That's why Egypt has a vested interest in Israel holding back and not causing an out of control situation in Rafah.

Yes, it’s true.
A. Israeli gov asked the army to present game plan for the operation. I’m sure that they are thinking exactly on your question
B. The Gazans are already evacuating themselves to different areas around rafah.
C. It’s complicated but not impossible. Such a shame that this nation has to suffer so much. I wish they’ll learn from it and drop the armed “resistance” which brought nothing but losses to them over and over again.

Agreed, that is what I interpret as "what is best for Egypt"
They also don't want any destabilising individuals, as in Hamas fighters percolating in the Sinai region.

Thanks. Is it true that Netanyahu cannot give the military the order to assault Rafah, by himself?
As in the Prime minister does not have that power in the Israeli structure?

I listened to a journalist describe this mechanic, and she explained that by publicly stating the order to attack Rafah Netanyahu is using it to
A. Put pressure on Hamas, as in a pre-negotiation tactic
B. Send a message to his domestic audience that Israel will continue the war, something which Netanyahu probably needs in order to remain in power.

Obviously this is just what I recently heard from a news outlet.

This post was edited by Prox1m1ty on Feb 12 2024 12:20pm

Maybe, but that might depend on the outcome of the rafah operation. If yall start dropping the hammer and push them into Egypt it might get dicey, however I'd imagine you have a better grasp of the current situation.

Also the hostage rescue was pretty slick:
Make superbowl commercial saying bring dads back
Hit some mosques to create a diversion
Send in special forces (Sayeret Matkal??)
Rescue two dads (unfortunately not Israelis but w/e)
Restore the fear of g-d into the enemy.

Pretty good OP