Even if Republicans took the senate this year they wouldn't take a supermajority, and Biden would remain president and hold the veto, so yeah its a 2024 issue. And the deck stacked against them in 2024 to boot.
This is not 'getting away with it' The best case scenario is that they get to make abortions legal at the federal level for a matter of months, maybe 1.5 years tops, before its immediately reversed by republicans. And then we'd be plunging the nation into a ridiculous back and forth on policy based on each election cycle, moreso than it already is right now. The filibuster has been mitigating that.

History has shown that every time the democrats overreach, the Republicans are the ones who win long term. Mitch McConnell said that to Harry Reid point blank when he went nuclear on the judiciary, and look how that turned out

That's assuming that Republicans win the House and the presidency in 2024, neither of which is a guarantee. We have no idea what the political climate will look like in 2024, or who the candidates will be, or how the public will react to them.
There is at least a decent chance that covid will be a distant memory by 2024 and that inflation will have abated. In such an environment, I can definitely imagine Biden winning a rematch with Trump. If Trump becomes the nominee, he will get more coverage and screentime than he does now and voters would be quickly reminded of why they hated him so much in the first place. That's surely not the most likely scenario, but not an outlandish one either.

Regarding abortion, it's imho fairly obvious that the issue should be settled by the states now, like the SCOTUS suggested. Neither side should push for a federal law which imposes their side's view onto states where the majority's view on the issue is diametrically opposed.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 8 2022 01:13am

FUCK JOE BIDEN

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1545444306995011585

Imagine your job being to stand behind Joe Biden and hold a straight face

3 Supreme Court justices would like to disagree.

That's not legislative.

The Senate has a substantial bias toward more rural, white states, so we can assume the GOP to control it significantly more than 50% of the time. Hence, the filibuster only benefits Republicans more than Democrats if we assume that there is, and will remain, a huge gap in interest in passing legislation between the two parties. And to be honest, I think it's a mistake to assume that they will have no legislative priorities, even when they have a solid majority. In the short term, this assumption might well be true, but in the long run, it's imho rather bold.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 8 2022 02:50pm

I think that's a pretty safe assumption given the current state of things. I think things are fluid enough that both parties will change substantially over the next decade. It's possible that in 10 years, rural white voters LOVE the Democrats. It's possible that it 10 years, black voters will be an important voting bloc for Republicans. New issues will cause new coalitions to form.

The most important thing about abolishing the current filibuster (I support the old school kind) is that it forces a party to be responsive to the voters. It prevents parties from throwing their arms in the air and ignoring their constituents.

This post was edited by thundercock on Jul 8 2022 02:56pm

The benefit of the filibuster is that it prevents wild whiplash in policy. The negatives are obvious. I'm not sure what the right decision is.