The choice of VP, and his/her executive experience in particular, have not been very important historically. But this cycle is different. This time, we're talking about he VP of a man who would be 78 when inaugurated, and 82 by the time he finishes his first term. A man who is already showing noticeable mental decline and might perhaps suffer from dementia. The probability for Biden's VP to become president is several times higher than it had been for most previous VPs. Being ready to take over on day one is unusually important this time around.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 11 2020 09:57pm

Trump is 74 and has spoken like he has dementia for 4 straight years.

ha ha gotem

The same arguments of course apply to Trump too. I'd have to look up the chance of dying within the next 4 years for a 74 and 78 year old man in life tables...

the amount of criticism of the Harris' that couldn't be reflected back to trump is hilarious.

Ok, let's settle this once and for all:

I'm looking at the most recent (period) life table I could find, published in mid-2019 and containing data through 2017:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_07-508.pdf

According to Table 5 out of 100000 white males, 66325 reach their 74th birthday, but only 57150 reach their 78th birthday. Thus, the probability for a 74 year old white male to die within the next 4 years estimates to (66325-57150)/66325 = 13.8%.
This number is of course just a population average. Trump is wealthy, has access to the best possible healthcare and is (as far as we know) not currently suffering from any dangerous disease like cancer. Therefore, his personal probability of surviving the next 4 years should be lower than this number.

Likewise, out of 100000 white males, 57150 reach their 78th birthday, but only 45669 reach their 82nd. The probability for a 78 year old white male to die within the next 4 years therefore estimates to (57150-45669)/57150 = 20.0%.
The same arguments as for Trump also apply to Biden, so his personal probability of dying within the next 4 years will also be lower than this population average.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 11 2020 10:56pm

So a 14% vs 20%, but both are going to be lower because of the above average healthcare they have access to.

Not a difference that concerns me.

Yeah, I expected the drop for each passing year to be steeper at this age range.

This still suggests that there's something like a 1 in 6 chance for Biden to die in office should he win the presidency. And that's just for outright dying, you have to add the chance for him (or Trump...) to become incapacitated on top of this number to get the real probability of Harris(/Pence) taking over.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 11 2020 11:39pm

To get a realistic chance we'd probably need to see some actuarial tables for billionaires, senators, etc.

Too small sample size, also, most billionaires and senators at this age are living very stress-free lives, while being POTUS is one of the most taxing, stressful jobs in the world. Trump has been looking super exhausted and tired since late 2018, and looks like total shit nowadays. Obama visibly aged by around 20 years during his 8 years in office, if you know what I mean. You really cant compare this job with what the vast majority of their peers do at this age. It's a position that really should be held by someone younger than 74/78.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 12 2020 12:28am

I think dems want 4 more years of trump, then the new ticket will be hillary again.