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Mar 6 2018 06:41pm
Quote (Voyaging @ Mar 6 2018 05:33pm)


Apparently economic powerhouses like Germany and Japan didn't get the memo on what the 99% of economists think because they have protectionist policies with the US.

Quote
He noted the example of BMW, which sells about 350,000 cars in the U.S. annually, roughly 70 percent of which come from Europe. "That's probably an $8 billion to $9 billion revenue stream, if you put a 5 to 10 percent additional cost on it, it would cost something like $400 million to $800 million. Some of that would be absorbed by the company, and some of it would have to be absorbed by the consumer in the U.S."

Ellinghorst did add that cars being shipped from the U.S. into Europe faced a 10 percent import duty while European cars into the U.S. faced a 2.5 percent import duty. "I think what the administration is talking about is to balance out this difference in tariffs to make it more of an equal playing ground for American and European carmakers," he said.


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/05/trumps-tariff-threat-on-european-cars-could-spell-big-trouble-for-germany.html

Two things might come out of this. Either BMW & others will start building their factories in the US or that 10% is going to drop, both are good for us. Your graphs don't prove shit, consumers will always benefit from free trade this is news to no one.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Mar 6 2018 06:41pm
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Mar 6 2018 06:44pm
Quote (Voyaging @ Mar 6 2018 07:33pm)


Of course this doesn't mean free trade is always good, just that it is mostly good.

Quote (Goomshill @ Mar 6 2018 07:25pm)
Pete Navarro isn't a legit economist, the orthodoxy said so


I just want to know if these arguments are backed up by anyone serious. I listen to Laura Ingraham complain about free trade all the time, but I'm interested in what educated people think.

This post was edited by IceMage on Mar 6 2018 06:46pm
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Mar 6 2018 06:45pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Mar 6 2018 07:41pm)
Apparently economic powerhouses like Germany and Japan didn't get the memo on what the 99% of economists think because they have protectionist policies with the US.



https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/05/trumps-tariff-threat-on-european-cars-could-spell-big-trouble-for-germany.html

Two things might come out of this. Either BMW & others will start building their factories in the US or that 10% is going to drop, both are good for us. Your graphs don't prove shit, consumers will always benefit from free trade this is news to no one.


Apparently they didn't.

Not sure what point you're making.

This post was edited by Voyaging on Mar 6 2018 06:45pm
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Mar 6 2018 06:49pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Mar 6 2018 07:41pm)
Apparently economic powerhouses like Germany and Japan didn't get the memo on what the 99% of economists think because they have protectionist policies with the US.



https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/05/trumps-tariff-threat-on-european-cars-could-spell-big-trouble-for-germany.html

Two things might come out of this. Either BMW & others will start building their factories in the US or that 10% is going to drop, both are good for us. Your graphs don't prove shit, consumers will always benefit from free trade this is news to no one.


If he went the other way and freed up trade with all parties involved instead of adding tariffs and you would be praising and selling the move with the same energy and vigor.
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Mar 6 2018 06:49pm
Quote (Voyaging @ Mar 6 2018 05:45pm)
Apparently they didn't.

Not sure what point you're making.


Point is we don't actually have free trade and the Trump proposed tariffs would just be balancing an inequality.

Quote (Skinned @ Mar 6 2018 05:49pm)
If he went the other way and freed up trade with all parties involved instead of adding tariffs and you would be praising and selling the move with the same energy and vigor.


I'm actually for free trade, actual free trade, not this bullshit you call free trade in which our companies face tariffs in their markets meanwhile their companies don't

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Mar 6 2018 06:52pm
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Mar 6 2018 07:01pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ 6 Mar 2018 20:49)
Point is we don't actually have free trade and the Trump proposed tariffs would just be balancing an inequality.



I'm actually for free trade, actual free trade, not this bullshit you call free trade in which our companies face tariffs in their markets meanwhile their companies don't

why are you explaining this to commie there is no trade in his view of how things should be. for him, the state distributes out to the individual what he requires according to his needs.
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Mar 6 2018 07:14pm
Quote (IceMage @ Mar 6 2018 06:44pm)
Of course this doesn't mean free trade is always good, just that it is mostly good.


And the orthodox opinion of 'mainstream' economists is to always err on the side of free trade. Pegging them to any examples of any actual, not theoretical, advocacy of anti-free trade measures would be like pulling teeth

Quote (IceMage @ Mar 6 2018 06:38pm)
I don't think voters remember the political arguments from Hillary Clinton like you do. They don't care about Democrat doomsday talking points getting disproved, they care about their lives getting better. If their lives don't get better as a result of the stock market going up and Trump passing some tariffs, I don't think the bullshit artist routine works a second time.

Also, it's not like the TPP is up for debate anymore. Democrats can easily play the line of "I want smart trade" which gathers enough votes from the dimbwits in PA/WI and the BernieBros as well.


The public doesn't just sway in the wind between one day and the next. Change comes gradually if it comes at all, and people who embraced a populist message of anti-free trade in 2016 are still going to be around in 2020, its just not realistic to assume a dramatic shift in 4 years. Obama fed the sentiments in 2008 and 2012 and the republicans accused him of class warfare, yet the movement got strong enough to propel Bernie and Trump to the front, strong enough to elect Trump, I don't think we can discount that by saying americans are fickle and ignorant and will just believe whatever the next guy tells them.
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Mar 6 2018 07:21pm
Quote (excellence @ Mar 6 2018 09:01pm)
why are you explaining this to commie there is no trade in his view of how things should be. for him, the state distributes out to the individual what he requires according to his needs.


If only the one percent would just stop making all of these incredibly cheap and convenient products and let us starve and die on our own from crop famines like in the good old days.
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Mar 6 2018 07:24pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Mar 6 2018 08:14pm)
The public doesn't just sway in the wind between one day and the next. Change comes gradually if it comes at all, and people who embraced a populist message of anti-free trade in 2016 are still going to be around in 2020, its just not realistic to assume a dramatic shift in 4 years. Obama fed the sentiments in 2008 and 2012 and the republicans accused him of class warfare, yet the movement got strong enough to propel Bernie and Trump to the front, strong enough to elect Trump, I don't think we can discount that by saying americans are fickle and ignorant and will just believe whatever the next guy tells them.


The Democrats don't need a dramatic shift. They had a shit candidate without a message in 2016, and she barely lost. Trump's populism is right-wing... as in, cut the taxes of the guys screwing you, put tariffs on some of their business, and cut programs which benefit lower and middle income voters. Left-wing populism is the only sustainable version. Whoever wins the Democratic primary is going to incorporate enough of that into their message to win.

Plus, I don't see Trump adding any new voters. His approval rating isn't a mirage, people don't like him, and it's not just because he cuts taxes. He acts like a douchebag, and while you think of it as refreshing, most people don't.
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Mar 6 2018 07:35pm
Quote (IceMage @ Mar 6 2018 07:24pm)
The Democrats don't need a dramatic shift. They had a shit candidate without a message in 2016, and she barely lost. Trump's populism is right-wing... as in, cut the taxes of the guys screwing you, put tariffs on some of their business, and cut programs which benefit lower and middle income voters. Left-wing populism is the only sustainable version. Whoever wins the Democratic primary is going to incorporate enough of that into their message to win.


"Sustainable" in that the populists were left-wing. It works for Trump because he's stealing a whole chunk of blue voters away. Whoever wins the democratic primary is going to have to try to reclaim the defectors as well as hold together a fractious party who regards any attempts to appeal to the white working class as nazism. Just dismissing Hillary as a fluke and assuming everything will go right again- that was the kind of arrogance that led to her failure in the first place.

Quote
Plus, I don't see Trump adding any new voters. His approval rating isn't a mirage, people don't like him, and it's not just because he cuts taxes. He acts like a douchebag, and while you think of it as refreshing, most people don't.


If his approval rating wasn't a mirage, he wouldn't be president. Where is Pollster now?
The absolute values are useless. You can read into whether the numbers are going up or down, and the relative change is a useful metric, and it has shown Trump is likely adding new voters with a small, steady upward tick.

And if you think him being a douchebag was a problem, I guarantee you that the majority of people who voted for him agreed, and didn't care.
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