Trump is in a stronger position now because he is a proven commodity. He controls the party infrastructure and has the most name recognition. Do you really see Tom Cotton beating Trump? Mitt Romney? Marco Rubio? Ted Cruz?
Take a look at some of these post insurrection polls: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html
For example, look at these crosstabs: https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2021/01/19074756/210162_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v3_IMPEACHMENT.pdf

I'd be interested in your essay regarding liberal policies. Rest assured though, American conservatives are not that sophisticated. They are primarily driven by social issues and anger.

Look, I dont deny that Trump would win a GOP primary in a landslide if it was held right now, or in 2 months or so. But the actual primary is 3 years away.

Three years during which Trump's relevance will fade, particularly now that he has been cut off from social media, while the relevance of other GOP politicians will rise.
Three years during which the party elites can hold an invisible primary and settle on a candidate who will come out of of the gates backed by unified support, so that the official primary instantly becomes a two-way race between Trump and this consensus non-Trump candidate.
Three years for the sting of defeat to be felt.
Three years of Trump getting older, less energetic and less sharp. (And he doesnt exactly have a lot of cushion in this regard...)
Three years of congressional and legal prosecution which will keep Trump mired in scandal and shift his focus away from a potential reelection campaign.
Three years for the emotional attachment of his supporters to cool off. Trump had this uncanny ability to turn every policy issue into a referendum on himself, his supporters felt this strong urge to defend each and every of his actions and decisions. Emotions were always polarized and running high whenever Trump was involved. I'm myself guilty of this behavior. Now that he's out of power, I expect this urge to dwindle rapidly... well... as soon as impeachment and thus the "Trump era" have truly ended.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 1 2021 01:02am

I like Trump 😎

Pres Trump would be silly to run again. Even if our economy and society torpedoes the next four years people are so emotionally driven they will vote against him and blame him for 2021-2024. Being kingmaker is better. Pres Obama is doing quite grand in that unofficial capacity.

This doesn't refute any of my points.

Trump voters don't care about process... it's simply a question of whether you are loyal to Trump. Had they slowed down the process, there wouldn't be any substantial shift in supporting impeachment from Trump supporters.

Without the storming of the Capitol, Hawley's position would've been politically smart in today's Trumpified GOP. He made a pretty simple calculation. Liz Cheney made one as well... this was obviously a politically damaging move and she did it anyway.

This post was edited by IceMage on Feb 1 2021 09:37am

Next election cycle is going to be a total mess. Republicans are going to have 16+ candidates... Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, Nikki Haley, Jeb?, Kristi Noem, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Tom Cotton, Mitt Romney, New Gingrich, Scott Walker, Kasich?, Huckabee?, Santorum?, Perry?

I dont see Trump winning again after the Jan 6 debacle. Given the two qualified women candidates, I think they will both have a free ticket to victory.

Dont forget Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis. I dont think that Romney will run, or that he would get any traction. Also, he's a proven loser, why would the party give him another chance?



Imho, if Rubio plays his cards right and strikes the right tone, he could quickly emerge as a consensus candidate. Noem and DeSantis are my darkhorse picks.

bold: yuck

way too early to be talking candidates for 2020. the GOP is a mess. their saving grace will be an incompetent govt in control of one party for the next 2 years

That's way too many candidates who have absolutely no chance. Of your list, I'd say the following will run: Haley, Noem, Rubio, Cruz, Paul (lol), and Cotton. The rest are way past their prime.

lol Scott Walker.