Deaths & hospitalizations will have a free fall when only like 10-20 % of the whole pop will be vaccinated IMO.
Restaurants are still a terrible issue, but since almost everything else is about to get back to normal: here's what Macron said:

"Restaurants, bars, sports halls, nightclubs, all establishments that will remain administratively closed, will be paid, whatever their size, 20% of their turnover for the year 2019 if this option is preferable for them to 10,000 euros from the solidarity fund "

Closed until January 20th

20% is probably not even enough to pay the rent tbh.
also, it's abundantly clear that nightclubs, gyms and stuff like that will not reopen before spring, if not even later.

when these establishments were closed here in Germany starting in November, our government promised to compensate them for 75% of their 2019 revenue. this very (some say too) generous rule runs out at the end of this year though.

yes, we will see, but the entire economy does not depends of restaurants, still terrible, especially here in france.

BTW: the difference between 50 & 75 is very visual

Nice visualization!

Yes, restaurants alone would be disposable for the economy. But when large parts of the entire hospitality industry, entertainment industry, sports and tourism are all put on hold, that does have an impact. People working in these industries lose income, or perhaps even lose their job permanently, which depresses economic demand in many other industries too. For example, while clubs, restaurants and culture (theaters, opera, museums) are shut, there is significantly lower demand for new cloths. The clothing industry is indeed suffering from a particularly big loss of revenue this year. Businesses being closed forever might, in turn, cause the real estate bubble to burst, triggering a new debt or financial crisis, and so on and forth.

Our economies are like a tower of Jenga - you can take some pieces out and it stays stable, but with every additional piece you remove, there is a risk that everything comes crashing down.

Ah i understand now... You are in panic because Germany is starting a lockdown.

You have to add a temporal parameter to you fall video: everything stays in place, relatively, it's an activity freeze too, no ony the definitive cancellation of activity.

Merkel, such a strong woman hu ? I like this sexy accent too ! So brutal.
I will spare you a photo.

This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on Dec 15 2020 09:52am

I'm not in a panic, lol - I'm worried about the social and economic long-term impact, always have been. Look back in this thread, even back in March/April, I was making the same points I'm making now. Most people dont realize that the economic damage from prolonged lockdowns also grows exponentially with time - it's just that governments and the central banks can hide this damage for quite some time by taking on huge debt or printing a shitload of money. The economic and also the social damage are not immediately visible, while overcrowded hospitals and morgues directly create ugly and unbearable pictures. In the long run, the effects of unemployment, poverty, destroyed livelihoods, increased inequality, lost education time among the school aged children, less financial breathing room for other important issues, and ultimately less funding or more financial pressure on the healthcare system itself will all be drastic - but they dont manifest themselves right now.

Just to make this clear: this does not mean that I generally advocate for a primacy of the economy over public health, it means that in my humble opinion, the public discourse generally understates the magnitude of the tradeoffs and how shitty all available options actually are. The public discourse too often devolves into a low IQ debate between "just a flu, stop being such a pussy " and "people are DYING as we speak, and you complain about your closed gym, stop being such a pussy".

Yes, i perfectly understanding your point; you are pushing for greater sacrifices and justify it with the importance of economics. Reasonably.
Let's not forget politics have hard time to afford this kind of allah uak bar policy/decisions, except guys like Trump or Bolsonaro, which are about to get kicked out soon.
Basically they lose their seat in the middle run if they do that. What can you do ? Open everything back right now ? The maximum allowed death pool is already used.

Yet i think the societal impact of lockdown will be more important than the simple temporary closures and consumption freeze.
(first result typing my own sentence in google)
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/19/coronavirus-effect-economy-life-society-analysis-covid-135579

This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on Dec 15 2020 11:55am

Nah, we can't open everything. I just dont agree with the recent hard lockdowns.

Clubs, christmas markets and stadiums have to remain closed, as do hotels and mass tourism. But closing schools is disastrous, as are store closures during christmas season. Similarly, I dont think that restaurants with good and tightly enforced hygiene concepts had to be shut down. Dito for zoos, museums and similar places.

I don't think there's any way that a restaurant can stay open in the winter.

There is no minimum safe distance when you are sitting with a mask off for an hour eating unless you are going to put special ventilation above every table.

I also think that online shopping would be good. I mean, if we had a government that would provide for the smaller businesses to survive, but without that we're dooming ourselves to depression as all of the small businesses end up permanently closed.

What are the excess deaths in Germany?