Quote (InsaneBobb @ Dec 12 2020 05:54pm)
What problems am I denying? I've openly acknowledged that Covid is a severe problem among the elderly, especially those with one or more related health issues. I simultaneously acknowledged that it's really NOT a large problem among the young and healthy. I directly advocated for incentivization of self-quarantine for at-risk groups, with the remainder (working age population, school children, etc.) to go back to life as normal. The likely result, based on transmission rates as they appear to exist is that by summer, the majority of the young and healthy population will have caught the virus, gotten over it, and gained immunity. Last I checked, there are only 4 cases in the entire world where a person got it more than once, and all 4 cases the patients had no immune system. One from some rare syndrome, the other three from cancer treatments, IIRC. In the meantime, the elderly population can get vaccinated (if they so choose) as vaccines become available. But, once the virus runs through the healthy population, and the so-called "herd immunity" is reached, the most contagious threat is over, and the elderly can rejoin the general population with a feeling of relative safety.
Alternatively, what we've been doing is these selective lockdowns, without any real incentivized backing. So people are having harder times making ends meet, eating their fill, getting their exercise, etc. 95% of your time sat around without exercise or leaving the house depresses the immune system, and increases likelihood of infection spread when you do move about. So you end up seeing waves, and as the elderly inevitably come in contact with these waves of less healthy people at the stores or hospitals or wherever else, their likelihood of contracting the virus is simply at a non-stop high. I mean, right on the face of it I acknowledge the issue with the primary at risk group (the elderly). I fully acknowledge that hospitals will run into some issues, though I'd expect it to be much MUCH easier now that there's some experience and knowledge in treating the virus and it's effects, as compared to April. The problem I see is the impact it's having on the low/no-risk 6/7ths of the population.
And this is where I have major issue with Politicians claiming they're simply "following the science" by "consulting health experts". Forget that the WHO and CDC advised against more lockdowns. Let's just go with whichever doctors the Politicians are quoting this week. I mean, airborne viruses such as covid (and yes, it IS airborne, CDC confirmed in October) are damned near impossible to reign in, but the overall death rate among those under 65 is incredibly low, and among 0-19 non-existent. So all the damage we've done by quarantining the healthy population simply wasn't helpful. But the damage to educations, businesses, supply chains, mental health, and overall fitness has been horrific. So the question, as you happen to be a medical professional is, do we all just stay locked down until all the elderly can be vaccinated? Keep the entire nation/world at a standstill until next summer, or is it maybe better to get things moving again, and use the increased tax incomes from a revitalized economy to incentivize the at-risk group (elderly, comorbidity, etc.) to continue a self-imposed quarantine?
The majority of spread,> 99% is via droplet, as any coronavirus. Influenza also has a small proportion of virions that remain contagious in the air for a finite time. It is not a statistically significant amount, ergo influenza is droplet precautions. It might sound confused but despite a statistically Insignificant amount of spread via air, it is still not considered airborne. Semantics here matter a lot
Again, it’s a problem for all ages in demographics when you rear high the point of hospital saturation. This is the point here. It doesn’t matter if every patient who has covid and is hospitalized is 90 years old if they are still taking 100,000 beds across the country. The 50 year old father who has a heart attack or the 25 year old sister (probably Asian) in a car accident. Everyone is effected when saturation happens, and the point it is HAPPENING. You will have half a million covid deaths by March, excess mortality will be higher than this however.
What I called for is too late. When the country went into lockdown it was clearly too early however everyone was just looking at NYC Detroit Chicago and it was difficult to say who Was next. The answer was to MASS TEST , OUTPATIENT, to know what society rates were. When rates got above X arbitrary % where the risk of rapid rise is imminent, you slow things down. When risk of true hospital saturation, more restrictions which should be very temporary and evaluated daily.
This only worked if you had mass outpatient testing to know your true rates of prevalence. The US failed miserably here and it wasn’t until mid/late summer that testing occurred outpatient. We were destined to never get control unless happened.
The problem is so multi factorial because American livelihoods are also dependent on work and there is NO safety net for the majority of Americans. I also called for proper financial relief for every American especially those unemployed. 80% of your monthly salary, judged by taxes from 2019 Or 2020, for at least 3 months. This takes financial pain away and therefore American as a whole can act more rationally. We absolutely had the money to accomplish that. Instead the US government decided to buy apple and Boeing corporate bonds. I cannot think how to describe this other than utterly fucking pathetic
U ask what to do now. I said I don’t have good answers. As I said my issue was with you somehow stating hospital saturation isn’t an issue. Right now the country will be in damage control.
By our half assed approach with both the finacjla aspect and the health aspect, we will have failed despicably on both fronts. All you can do is mitigation and recognize the problem. American livelihoods cannot suffer another lockdown and it’s clear Washington will not help. Americans also cannot afford a hospitalization every 5th family. And of course the loss of life is not insignificant. Don’t forget for every patient that does die, there are tens more than have grueling 15 day hospitalizations that they will never be the same from. The most we can do is perform mitigation measures up to our potential and help our neighbors and brothers the best we are able. We can start by acknowledging the problem exists and is very real which is why mitigation measures like masks and social distancing to whatever degree you can will, objectively, help. However, I personally don’t think anything can alter our trajectory. At the current rate you will see excess death far beyond any other first world country