Quote (AiNedeSpelCzech @ 26 Sep 2016 12:05)
That is incorrect.
It's the first time I've ever seen him up in any of their models. Maybe he has been up before? HRC has held a consistent lead in the polls-only and polls-plus forecasts, but that lead has dwindled to less than 55% sometimes in recent weeks.
Clinton could still win in a landslide, but it's time to accept the fact that this is a real race, and Trump very well could be our mext president. He has the momentum and her campaign has coughed up a lot of points in recent weeks.
Trump's bid for the White House is not a joke, and we should take the prospect of a Trump presidency very seriously. The fact that Donald Trump has greater than a 1% chance of being president is concerning, to be quite honest, let alone 45% or more. Entering these debates, anything can happen.
Quote (Voyaging @ 26 Sep 2016 12:35)
I know you know, just a reminder to everyone else that that is referring to the now cast i.e. if the election were held today who would win. Meaning it is affected by what are usually temperature fluctuations in the race.
Their polls-plus and polls only which are better predictors both have Clinton at 53.2%.
Meanwhile Vegas has her at about 62%.
Vegas predictions are still my favorite. They are most robust to day-to-day polls and shenanigans and are a good indication of the overall political market.
That said, I've seen Trump with about a 40% chance in some books.
This post was edited by ThatAlex on Sep 26 2016 02:30pm
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