i think there will be a period where stock indicies retreat a bit due to a near-decade bull market, but that was going to happen no matter who was elected. although it may be out a bit more in the timeline since the Fed is sticking to not raising rates again in December.

Cuban is a sore loser, i'm actually disappoint in myself for liking him for so long. Him and Bloomberg are two ultra successful, somewhat sensible seeming people who showed how spineless and jealous they are that they didn't have the balls to go through a Presidential election.

what happens if Trump rangles in the fed & raises the interest rate? specifically, will my father in law lose more from a 100k$ S&P500 index account per month in prospective gains than he nets from Obamacare getting repealed? aka is he losing more than 100$/month in possible gains in a propped up bull market than he would with correct interest rates set?

This post was edited by thesnipa on Nov 10 2016 09:54am

a long-term policy of setting rates to zero was dangerous because there had to be pain somewhere along the way to restore rates at a level resembling an actual long-term policy aimed at stability. the fed decided, for whatever reason, it was best to keep it at zero (and now near-zero) for 8 years. this (as dro has argued here and i agree with) leaves a sliver of wiggle room when the economy ultimately cycles bearish - which is a normal part of economic cycles. as for your specific example, rates rising will have a short-term negative effect followed by longer term stability assuming everything else equal (see graph, which depicts S&P500 performance after the rates were rased 25 basis points in Dec 2015). so in the short run he will likely lose more per month for a few months and then it will cycle back.



a propped up economy is not healthy and we had one in 2007 crash in 2008.
if Trump tries to rangle in the fed he could have problems similar to what JFK faced. he may bark at them but it's a powerful insitution

do you expect Trump to raise the interest rate? especially at any notable rate? wouldn't that cause a massive drop due to a bubble burst?

or do you expect him to just raise it slowly in increments?

a large immediate increase would be bad/dumb and would cause short-term recessionary effects, i expect a slow increase over time by the Fed, perhaps 25-50 basis points per quarter for the first term starting maybe after 1 year. i don't expect Trump to raise the interest rate because it's not his decision.

wouldn't it also allow real estate developers with capital to purchase properties while those looking for loans couldn't?

interesting, Trump doesnt wear his wedding ring.

over time yes, rates for various loan types will go up. this will also, hopefully, restore banks paying interest on deposits. so the common person can hopefully get to the point where they have cds that pay a decent amount.

http://www.bankrate.com/cd.aspx

5 years for .81%? lmao



i think i noticed this at the debates too if im not mistaken

This post was edited by excellence on Nov 10 2016 03:16pm