Very interesting indeed. Unfortunately, Miami-Dade and Sarasota dont provide live updates, so it has to be taken with a heavy grain of salt. Particularly since Trump's margin out of Dade is paramount for the entire state. It's basically guaranteed that he will slip in the Tampa bay region, Orlando, and probably also in the Jacksonville suburbs. Hence, he needs the surge in Miami-Dade (relative to 2016, he's of course still gonna lose that county) based on Cubans coming home to offset those losses. He won FL by 120k in 2016, so he got sooooome tiny bit of cushion. Currently, Trump is up 180k, but Miami-Dade hasnt updated in hours, and once it does, his lead will shrink. By how much is the big question.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 3 2020 04:33pm

I called Iowa for Biden few days ago before the Selzer poll dropped. I'm slightly regretting that decision because I called Ohio for Trump. Either way, it should be fairly close in those states.

NYTimes falsely claimed "The role of declaring the winner of a presidential election in the U.S. falls to the news media"

They have become nypost levels of trash tier, they just dont realize it yet.



That's the bigger point: if Trump has to sweat either IA or OH, he's toast and will lose the national race badly.

Important people to follow on Twitter if that suits your fancy:
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538
https://twitter.com/Redistrict

I need to scour for experts on a state by state basis (i.e. Jon Rolston for Nevada)
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports

when do we know who winner?

get a real account then try posting again.

Probably sometime thursday. But you never know.

Official results will take some days.




But we might de facto know the winner tonight if either Biden wins Florida, or if Trump wins Florida by a girthy margin. (Say R+4 or higher).

If Trump wins Florida by a narrow margin (R+ (0-4)), then the EC will probably come down to AZ and PA, where counting the mail ballots will take days.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 3 2020 04:53pm

Yep.

Twitter is a very good platform for politics.

This post was edited by IceMage on Nov 3 2020 04:54pm