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Mar 6 2018 05:57pm
Quote (thesnipa @ Mar 6 2018 05:56pm)
People r too dumb to work out the implications of protectionist trade. Trump is remedying that for them.


Or maybe the dogmatic neocons and neolibs refrain was wrong all along, and the skyrocketing inequality has been the result
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Mar 6 2018 06:04pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Mar 6 2018 05:57pm)
Or maybe the dogmatic neocons and neolibs refrain was wrong all along, and the skyrocketing inequality has been the result


Spin is great. More expensive beer doesn't lie tho.

I don't think this will swing much. Most of those blue collar simpletons are in for the long con on protectionist trade. If pressed they'd likely say they are willing to go jobless for 20 years so their kids can work the mines after them once trumps investment pays off.

This will be a nice bubble deflate tho. Some seniors aren't going to be happy to watch 10% of their portfolio melt. The poor suckers who lost in 2008 and allocated up to catch up will really be screwed. Just more cheap buys for me!
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Mar 6 2018 06:04pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Mar 6 2018 06:39pm)
These attitudes didn't pop up overnight and they won't go away overnight. People don't like free trade.
Here for once we have a president who is actually doing the difficult and politically costly thing he was elected to do and promised, a republican who is rebuking his own party in order to serve the unions and blue collar workers at the expense of big business. He's crossing party lines, delivering on a promise, and all the neocons and neolibs can point to as criticism is to say that free trade is always a positive good and that any tariffs are always a destructive act of trade war that will hurt us overall, even though the same logic would have forbidden the 266->500% steel tariffs that Obama slapped on Chinese steel just a couple years ago.

After decades of spineless panderers and lying pragmatists, after uninterrupted neo-rule of the economy and a steadily rising inequality in america and tightening of the middle class, the outcome was grievances that tried to elect Bernie Sanders and actually did elect Trump. And I think its not a good bet to assume that within just 4 short years that America would suddenly turn around and embrace free trade and champion anti-union fatcats who tell them that they're just uneducated plebes buying snake oil from a bullshit artist.

The proof will be in the pudding. If the economy crashes, Trump will go down. If the economy stays up, this will help him, no matter what the anti-populists shriek about whether the theory is invalid or not.


I'm sure you believe every word of that, but what's the concise political message that Trump can run on? Trump isn't the sort of guy to downplay his success. The economy is doing well, but a lot of these voters aren't going to feel it much more than they did in 2016. Bullshit only goes so far.
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Mar 6 2018 06:08pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Mar 6 2018 06:57pm)
Or maybe the dogmatic neocons and neolibs refrain was wrong all along, and the skyrocketing inequality has been the result


TIL only neocons and neolibs support free trade

I don't know much about economics, do any legit economists actually think the U.S. should've passed protectionist policies decades ago? They'd also have to factor in the national security ramifications.

I see most of them advocating other things like subsidizing education, training programs, healthcare, etc. Any saying we should enact protectionism now to bring jobs back?

This post was edited by IceMage on Mar 6 2018 06:15pm
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Mar 6 2018 06:11pm
Quote (Skinned @ Mar 6 2018 04:24pm)
Everyone gets what you're saying. You are saying tit for tat is going to not escalate things and instead deescalate things. It isn't complicated.


You're looking at things in one dimension. Look at how tit-for-tat turned out with North Korea. All of you were crying night and day about how Trump is going to push us into a nuclear war but instead North Korea seems much more willing to play ball imo.

I suspect this would have the same outcome. Just like NK scenario, we come from a position of power. The US market is massive. If the Germans, Japanese & others know we are serious, they will quickly renegotiate deals than go into a war that would be costlier to them.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Mar 6 2018 06:12pm
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Mar 6 2018 06:14pm
"99% of economists agree that free trade is good? Must be bad."

-Donald Trump
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Mar 6 2018 06:15pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Mar 7 2018 10:57am)
Or maybe the dogmatic neocons and neolibs refrain was wrong all along, and the skyrocketing inequality has been the result


I am with gooms on this.
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Mar 6 2018 06:25pm
Quote (IceMage @ Mar 6 2018 06:04pm)
I'm sure you believe every word of that, but what's the concise political message that Trump can run on? Trump isn't the sort of guy to downplay his success. The economy is doing well, but a lot of these voters aren't going to feel it much more than they did in 2016. Bullshit only goes so far.


Populism. War with the establishment. The same thing he ran on successfully already. He'll manage to portray his incumbency as an underdog again
The voters were told that Trumponomics were snake oil and rejected the argument and gave him a significant edge, and if they go into 2020 with an economic boom and the trade policies that people wanted and were repeatedly told would kill the economy, then he'll easily win reelection, especially if the democrats are using the meantime to demand all white men engage in self-flagellation. Its the economy, stupid. So if Trump puts on the tariffs and the economy suddenly asplodes, sure, he'll lose. But that's what we were told about everything he did up to this point, and the gaggle came out to dance in celebration for a correction that ended as abruptly as it started.

At the end of the day, democrats and republicans both tell people they are right. And trump comes along and says he is right. And the voters are inundated with contrasting arguments from dogmatic buffoons who claim theres is the only right way. But if they elect Trump because they agree with his way, and then he delivers and it works, its going to help him politically and guarantee reelection. All the doomsayers can sit back on is the second coming. If people start dropping from the kool-aid and astronaut jesus doesn't arrive to whisk you away to kolob, you're not going to win more followers

Quote (IceMage @ Mar 6 2018 06:08pm)
I don't know much about economics, do any legit economists actually think the U.S. should've passed protectionist policies decades ago? They'd also have to factor in the national security ramifications.


Pete Navarro isn't a legit economist, the orthodoxy said so

This post was edited by Goomshill on Mar 6 2018 06:27pm
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Mar 6 2018 06:33pm
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Mar 6 2018 06:38pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Mar 6 2018 07:25pm)
Populism. War with the establishment. The same thing he ran on successfully already. He'll manage to portray his incumbency as an underdog again
The voters were told that Trumponomics were snake oil and rejected the argument and gave him a significant edge, and if they go into 2020 with an economic boom and the trade policies that people wanted and were repeatedly told would kill the economy, then he'll easily win reelection, especially if the democrats are using the meantime to demand all white men engage in self-flagellation. Its the economy, stupid. So if Trump puts on the tariffs and the economy suddenly asplodes, sure, he'll lose. But that's what we were told about everything he did up to this point, and the gaggle came out to dance in celebration for a correction that ended as abruptly as it started.

At the end of the day, democrats and republicans both tell people they are right. And trump comes along and says he is right. And the voters are inundated with contrasting arguments from dogmatic buffoons who claim theres is the only right way. But if they elect Trump because they agree with his way, and then he delivers and it works, its going to help him politically and guarantee reelection. All the doomsayers can sit back on is the second coming. If people start dropping from the kool-aid and astronaut jesus doesn't arrive to whisk you away to kolob, you're not going to win more followers


I don't think voters remember the political arguments from Hillary Clinton like you do. They don't care about Democrat doomsday talking points getting disproved, they care about their lives getting better. If their lives don't get better as a result of the stock market going up and Trump passing some tariffs, I don't think the bullshit artist routine works a second time.

Also, it's not like the TPP is up for debate anymore. Democrats can easily play the line of "I want smart trade" which gathers enough votes from the dimbwits in PA/WI and the BernieBros as well.

This post was edited by IceMage on Mar 6 2018 06:39pm
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