Quote (MewKitten @ Apr 27 2011 02:14pm)
I honestly don't understand why people consider the zeitgeist movement crazy? I know the media portrays them as such, but why?
Much like the Venus Project, Zeitgeist identifies a problem, proposes an explanation that is based on a few basic facts, a lot of wild conjecture, and very little real evidence (they certainly throw numbers around, but those numbers don't really mean anything). The reason people don't take these movements seriously is that the people making the claims have no idea what they are talking about.
If someone wants to convince me of a point like the one Zeitgeist makes, I expect good statistics and sound logic. My definition of good statistics means that you account for the problems in your data and are open with the limitations of your conclusions--like any good statistician would do. As far as I can tell no one working on Zeitgeist has any training in advanced statistics, but they still try to draw inferences from data. The issue here is that economic data is notoriously difficult to make inferences from--there is substantial evidence that the first moment of the GDP process does not exist and that it has a unit root (suffice it to say that these are
very big problems), the inflation process has endogeneity problems that make it impossible to regress on using standard OLS-based techniques (i.e. most of statistics). The nonparametric tools one needs to be able to actually draw inferences from economic data are incredibly subtle and often not robust to assumption failure (i.e. the moment existence problem). Those issues are the same reason I doubt the arguments of most economists: it's very hard to account for them in applications and if you don't then any conclusions you draw are highly suspect.
I am open to the idea that the monetary system is flawed, but if you want to convince me that we need to throw out the baby with the bathwater, you had better have some incredibly compelling evidence, along with a reasonable model of what will happen after we do it. To convince me that you are correct, I am going to expect good, careful statistics. They don't have them so I ignore them.
This post was edited by darkfire on Apr 27 2011 01:32pm