Because of Trump’s behavior, if the war against Iran is not resumed after the midterm elections, China will definitely invade Taiwan. And even if it is resumed, it’s not guaranteed to deter a Chinese invasion.
This memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Iran has proven once again what Putin already realized back in 2022: the West is simply not willing to fight. One of the main reasons many dictators previously hesitated to take aggressive actions against their neighbors was the illusion of Western power. Why an illusion? Because if you possess power but are unwilling to use it, you effectively have no power at all.
Iran executed a genius maneuver in this recent war: they began firing at all of their Gulf neighbors, even striking their strategic sites. This was a move that absolutely no one anticipated, and it wasn’t entirely clear how to counter it.
By doing this, Iran demonstrated to every dictator in the world exactly how to handle the United States: hit the economy, and you will fold any American president. If Trump surrendered to this, just imagine what would have happened with a Democratic president.
And now the question arises: if China invades Taiwan tomorrow, will the U.S. truly declare war on China and risk American soldiers to defend the island? The answer is clear to you, and it is equally clear to the Chinese no. This "no" is so resounding that it should be echoing inside the mind of every single Taiwanese citizen.
But even more so, this "no" echoes inside the head of every dictator across the globe. They now understand that a large enough volume of missiles and UAVs can keep the strongest military in the world at bay.
So, while Trump is shouting "Drill, baby, drill" regarding oil, dictators are shouting to their subjects, "Dig, baby, dig" referring to underground missile and weapons tunnels.
Trump might actually understand this, but it doesn't make the situation any better. It's exactly like how Trump understood that Elon Musk was right about needing to cut government spending significantly, but Trump told him: "We also need to bring in voters." Trump understood perfectly that Musk was right, but he chose politics.
However, there is a stark difference between budget cuts and this capitulation agreement with Iran. Very few Americans truly understand what Musk and Trump did and why it mattered. Yet, every child in the U.S. and Iran understands that the memorandum of understanding signed this week is a surrender document. Obama has already gone on U.S. networks to mock Trump. Justifiably so!
Of course, I do not believe that Iran's situation today is better than it was in the past. One should not underestimate the immense damage this war has inflicted on Iran. Furthermore, anyone reading this MoU through the lens of a lawyer can see that nearly every single clause in it is designed for future dissolution and foot-dragging.
Trump truly signed a terrible memorandum of understanding because he was desperate to open the Strait of Hormuz right now. The problem, however, is that he will have to deal Iran a massive, fatal blow in the future just to erase the disgrace and insult that the U.S. suffered this week. And even then... it's not guaranteed to succeed.
When George Bush decided to finish off Saddam Hussein, he finished off Saddam Hussein. He brought the American military into Iraq, conquered Iraq, and finished the job. The U.S. was in a much easier situation regarding Iran. It could have captured only Tehran, distributed weapons to the local population, and pulled out leaving it to run its course on its own. And even that, Trump was too afraid to do.
If the U.S. does not restore its deterrence, we are on a certain path to military conflicts all over the globe.
I 100% agree.