Nate Silver disagrees with you.

In what respect? He's free to have an opinion, but almost every single thing I said is black and white. Reusing the same sample of respondents over and over again is a panel, not a poll. That doesn't mean that people like Nate Silver can't still glean value from it by including it in his model, but he takes a risk in doing so because it's structurally unlike the RDD polls that typically make up his model.

There's also no debate on whether the vote of someone who says they're 100% enthusiastic about voting for their candidate counts more than someone else's vote who says they're only 1% enthusiastic about voting for the other candidate: it doesn't. Votes don't differ in worth that way in this country. People can make assumptions based on the likelihood of which of those voters will turn out in elections based on that volunteered enthusiasm information, but there's no denying their votes are worth the same.



You call this putting the fire out LOL? By trading one moronic conspiracy theory for another he only succeeded in keeping this damaging narrative in the news, and his pool is PISSED about the scheduling nonsense he pulled twice now in two days. They would have been mad about it on its own but they're especially mad after his joke campaign manager laughably tried to project onto Clinton that it's her campaign that "treats the press like 2nd-class citizens." His negatives among the demographics that will decide the election are sky-high and they haven't budged an inch amid all this faux "outreach." He even made it worse by attacking the pastor who had to reign him in at his Flint stop.

I remain constantly amazed at all the different ways he tries to lose this election. The political press, almost uniformly, attempted to just flat-out give him this week for free. They obsessed over a non-story with Clinton, reverting to their worst instincts in trying to insert themselves into the narrative to make the entire election about them, the NYT whitewashed his negative stories, everyone's still ignoring the illegal Bondi donation and how his Foundation is nothing but a slush fund, everyone predictably ignored Newsweek's groundbreaking reporting, and yet here Trump is waffling over whether or not he's going to answer if the incumbent president was born in the country. It's amazing.

^^ 0-3 in '14's midterms back at it slamming Nate Silver's methodology again, little surprise.

This post was edited by excellence on Sep 16 2016 05:11pm

Hillary gave him this week, not the press. Was it the press who made Hillary produce a 47%'er gaffe? Was it the press who made Hillary literally slip up and produce embarrassing video of being dragged around like a sack of potatoes, getting caught in a lie about her health? Maybe, maybe the press pulled the birther movement out of the air two days ago, but it was Hillary who made it a national headline again by slamming trump on it.

In reality that's not what happened at all. Humorously he actually agrees rather than disagrees with me about the LA-Times panel; that's why his model re-weights its finding into something several points friendlier to Clinton. Exactly as I said, its initial pool is too Trump-heavy, and Nate Silver recognizes that, too.

But, you know, just keep saying things and hope that that alone will make them true!



Fortunately none of that happened. Clinton didn't "lie" about her health, and it's quite clear from the way her argument is playing that you've misread her "deplorables" comment too. You're also falsely equating it to the 47% comment. Have you already forgotten the nature of those remarks; not only what Romney said, but that he was factually wrong on BOTH accounts about who he was talking about? Clinton is correct about Trump supporters, both of the "left behind" variety and the "deplorable" variety.

This post was edited by Pollster on Sep 16 2016 05:19pm

its exactly what happened - all your massive range of outcomes still didnt capture what happened in the midterms.

Sad to see you, like (c)linton, exude bigotry and place tens of millions of people into baskets like theyre items at a market. two groups - deplorables beyond redeeming and pitiables screwed over by the current democrat administration. thats the democrat campaign slogan.

Obligatory: thanks for another fucking laugh!

This post was edited by excellence on Sep 16 2016 05:26pm

So you know nothing about Nate Silver's model or methodology and just want to run your mouth.

Good to know.

Yeah and Bill never lied about Monica, he just had a different definition of the words 'is' and 'sex'


Clinton said she had no health problems, then said she was completely fine even after the fall was on tape, then said it was 'just overheating and I'm fine', then she changed her story (again) to pneumonia.




For someone whos supposedly into polls, you're sure hacking up apologetics instead of recognizing her unforced error.
1) It doesn't matter whether what she said was right or wrong, its about optics and impact. She made a huge gaffe, your defense of it is irrelevant
2) She was wrong. There are less racists supporting trump because they're whites who hate blacks then there are racists supporting hillary who are blacks who will vote pro-black no matter what.

Trump is relishing what Clinton handed him on a silver platter. This week was not the product of 'conservative media bias conspiracy boogeymen', it was a product of Hillary spending the first week in the public eye since her sequestering ended and imploding instantly.

This post was edited by Goomshill on Sep 16 2016 05:30pm

Trump's daughter is bangin hot, just saying