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Donald Trump's economic policies aren't getting good grades.
His presidency would cost the U.S. economy $1 trillion over the next five years, according to Oxford Economics a British forecasting firm with offices in the United States.
The analysis comes ahead of Trump's big speech on Thursday at the Economic Club of New York, where he's expected to offer more clarity on his economic policy promises.
Oxford Economics found that if fully implemented, Trump's economic, tax and immigration policies would cost 4 million U.S. jobs, weigh down global growth and U.S. consumer spending, and could spark a trade war with other nations.
"Combining these policies together, the impact could be significantly negative for the U.S. economy," says Jamie Thompson, head of macro scenarios at Oxford Economics.
Oxford's figures are in line with other analysis. The University of Pennsylvania's Wharton Budget Model forecasts Trump's immigration policy costing 4 million jobs and Moody's economist Mark Zandi -- a Clinton supporter -- also forecasts a similar job loss under Trump.
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Thompson argues that Trump could hurt the very workers he says he'll help in America's manufacturing sector. In Oxford's "adverse case scenario" Trump slaps a 35% tariff on goods coming from Mexico, like cars and air conditioners.
But the problem is that almost half of the parts in those cars and ACs originate from U.S. suppliers. In other words, U.S. manufacturers who ship to Mexico stand to lose customers if the U.S. imposes a tariff on the products they contribute to.
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similar stories when we spoke to denim manufacturers in South Carolina. They send an overwhelming amount of denim to Mexico, where it is cut and sewn into jeans, which are sold in America. They say NAFTA, the trade deal with Mexico and Canada, is critical.
"Without NAFTA, we would be out of business," says Rich Turner, who employs 2,700 workers at his denim plant in Mauldin, S.C. Turner is still supporting Trump because he refuses to vote for Hillary Clinton.
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Many trade experts argue that raising tariffs on China and Mexico would only cause American companies to shift jobs to the next cheapest place, such as Vietnam or Central America.
Trump's trade proposals "would be ultimately self-defeating, and harm the U.S. economy and harm U.S. manufacturers," says Thompson, the economist from Oxford Economics.
Bad economic policies to go with his hidden financial information.
Are we even sure he is a businessman of any sort?
How is he going to make America great? Is Atlantic City great?
But emails! People say.
This post was edited by Skinned on Sep 14 2016 03:42pm
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