Quote (thesnipa @ Dec 14 2023 11:43am)
im not convinced that any islamic force could in reality win a war against israel even without us involvement. at least in the context that nukes and large amounts of missiles would be out. iran fires at jeruselum, israel fires at tehran. saudis fire, israel fires at mecca. no one's dusting off the big toys, so it's all conventional arms. no one wants that fight in reality, so they all hamstring themselves enough they cant take out israel.
The problem is that there are now tons of factions within the Muslim world that are calling for jihad while their leaders do nothing. I agree with your statement that Israel definitely has the means to withstand any conventional ground war, but the problem is that everyone already knows this. That's why the houthis big deterrent isn't we will strike Israel, but rather we'll strike saudi oil fields.
It's the surrounding countries abilities to overwhelm the Iron Dome that is the big worry. Nobody wants to get In an open conflict with the iof because they know they'd get obliterated, that's why hamas is happy taking on the talibans play book and fighting a guerilla war with hit and run tactics, it's very effective.