Quote (GLYC123 @ Nov 1 2020 03:03pm)
These are some more factors I see potentially negatively impacting the Democrats.
- Mail In Ballots - which have a higher % of being rejected, due to being improperly filled out esp from first time voters (the youth vote which is likely more pro Democrat), mailing errors, not received in time. Mail-In Ballots were more heavily pushed by Democrat politicians at their base. And this could cost them votes.
There is also is the potential for mailer fraud. As, I believe Trump won Michigan by 11k votes in 2016. If there are people discarding of several thousand ballots or fraud occurring, this could have a serious impact on either party.
- Secret Trump Voters / Trump rallies having some pretty decent % of Registered Democrat Attendees (I believe I read somewhere that it was around 15% Dems at some events). What % of Registered Democrats will be been voting Republican? I really firmly believe that people are more hesitant to admit they're voting for Trump versus Joe Biden.
There's many questions for sure that we don't know the answer to. Every small % will add up though if these factors play out.
It looks like mail-in ballots are smashing expectations even when compared to the total votes cast. That's really good for Biden since it will either counteract the easier time removing ballots for the reasons you gave, or it's increased turnout for Trump in mail-in ballots in which case removals will affect both parties and be a wash.
I don't think secret Trump voters are going to be as much of a thing this election. He's been president for 4 years so you're not going to be a pariah for voting for him.
The Dems turning over to Trump has a big doubt in my book. Why would they? Biden is incredibly appealing to middle of the road Dems and left leaning Republicans.
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