Quote (bogie160 @ 13 Nov 2020 05:36)
What countries are equivalent, though? France, Spain, the UK, Italy, and Belgium are better fits from my perspective compared to Austria, Poland, and Germany.
Why? I dont see any reason why the U.S. should be more comparable to France or Italy than to Germany or Austria.
Generally speaking, comparing the U.S. with all of the EU is the appropriate comparison. Similar size of population and economy, comparable geographic and cultural diversity, open land borders between the member states, various governors/heads of government using slightly different approaches, etc.
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The biggest question is to what extent Europe simply delayed the inevitable. Will they have more cases now as they catch up? Data from France implies they probably might, but we'll have to wait for this to play out.
You have it backwards, all the current trends suggest that it is the U.S. which is lagging behind the EU, is at an earlier point of the current wave. The EU will not catch up to the U.S., it'll be the other way round - and the U.S. are
already worse off than Europe. Cases in many European countries are already going down again, or at least the curves show a slowdown of the growth rates, while you still see unchecked growth.
Quote (Saucisson6000 @ 13 Nov 2020 12:30)
Lockdown for 3-4 weeks: after 15 days the cases are down by 50% and "recovery" (low cases, and low deaths...) appears/confirms at 30.
15 days more lockdown days for France: 1st december. But there will still be many restrictions (because its winter, read below)
In Germany they did not start a strong lockdown and their cases are UP... Italy has same problem, they got people getting oxygen in their car.
Seems there's no secret: Lockdown followed by a rest, a limited lockdown (typically this is where you can evaluate how disciplined is the population) of xx days: more in a summer, and probably much less in winter.
The growth rate is already decreasing in Germany/Italy, our current reproduction number R_t is below zero. Also note that the current wave hit Germany and Italy 1-2 weeks later than France/the UK. All in all, it seems as if we can handle it with the current, much softer lockdowns and dont need to go ham like the French government ("need permit to leave your home" and shit like that).
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 13 2020 06:37am