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Nov 12 2020 10:38pm
Quote (bogie160 @ Nov 12 2020 10:36pm)
What countries are equivalent, though? France, Spain, the UK, Italy, and Belgium are better fits from my perspective compared to Austria, Poland, and Germany.

The biggest question is to what extent Europe simply delayed the inevitable. Will they have more cases now as they catch up? Data from France implies they probably might, but we'll have to wait for this to play out.


I mean, in terms of dyanamics a comparison between the U.S. and the E.U. is incredibly appropriate. Separate governments responses with freedom of travel and mixed results is pretty much how the U.S.A. works.
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Nov 12 2020 10:47pm
Quote (Thor123422 @ Nov 12 2020 10:38pm)
I mean, in terms of dyanamics a comparison between the U.S. and the E.U. is incredibly appropriate. Separate governments responses with freedom of travel and mixed results is pretty much how the U.S.A. works.


How about comparing the US to Canada, Australia, New Zealand? Funny enough the US actually sets global standards for medicine and disease control - a comparison to France is just completely laughable as if our expectation is to be as good as France. But yeah cherry pick whatever fits your narrative.
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Nov 12 2020 10:48pm
Quote (Kippet @ Nov 12 2020 10:47pm)
How about comparing the US to Canada, Australia, New Zealand? Funny enough the US actually sets global standards for medicine and disease control - a comparison to France is just completely laughable as if our expectation is to be as good as France. But yeah cherry pick whatever fits your narrative.


A comparison to those doesn't make sense because they don't have free travel between them.

The U.S. has basically had the worst response of anybody. Honestly the further West you go away from China the worse the response was lol
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Nov 12 2020 10:49pm
Quote (Thor123422 @ Nov 12 2020 10:48pm)
A comparison to those doesn't make sense because they don't have free travel between them.

The U.S. has basically had the worst response of anybody. Honestly the further West you go away from China the worse the response was lol


Yeah, exactly my point? The US could have done more. Lol

This post was edited by Kippet on Nov 12 2020 10:49pm
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Nov 12 2020 10:50pm
Quote (Kippet @ Nov 12 2020 10:49pm)
Yeah, exactly my point? The US could have done more? Lol


Our president could have done..... something.... that wasn't actually worse than doing nothing.

A brown leaf would have been a more effective leader through this than Trump.
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Nov 12 2020 10:51pm
Quote (bogie160 @ 13 Nov 2020 05:36)
What countries are equivalent, though? France, Spain, the UK, Italy, and Belgium are better fits from my perspective compared to Austria, Poland, and Germany.

The biggest question is to what extent Europe simply delayed the inevitable. Will they have more cases now as they catch up? Data from France implies they probably might, but we'll have to wait for this to play out.


you forgot to add nursing home deaths which are underestimated in US
Us had a 3 weeks late lapse but never used it to crush pandemic... Sad.

Wait 3 weeks ...
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Nov 13 2020 12:16am
Quote (excellence @ Nov 12 2020 09:54pm)


R crying that D'm won't give them socialist gov't cheddar.
YUM!
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Nov 13 2020 05:30am
Lockdown for 3-4 weeks: after 15 days the cases are down by 50% and "recovery" (low cases, and low deaths...) appears/confirms at 30.
15 days more lockdown days for France: 1st december. But there will still be many restrictions (because its winter, read below)

In Germany they did not start a strong lockdown and their cases are UP... Italy has same problem, they got people getting oxygen in their car.
Seems there's no secret: Lockdown followed by a rest, a limited lockdown (typically this is where you can evaluate how disciplined is the population) of xx days: more in a summer, and probably much less in winter.

This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on Nov 13 2020 05:38am
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Nov 13 2020 06:35am
Quote (bogie160 @ 13 Nov 2020 05:36)
What countries are equivalent, though? France, Spain, the UK, Italy, and Belgium are better fits from my perspective compared to Austria, Poland, and Germany.

Why? I dont see any reason why the U.S. should be more comparable to France or Italy than to Germany or Austria.

Generally speaking, comparing the U.S. with all of the EU is the appropriate comparison. Similar size of population and economy, comparable geographic and cultural diversity, open land borders between the member states, various governors/heads of government using slightly different approaches, etc.


Quote
The biggest question is to what extent Europe simply delayed the inevitable. Will they have more cases now as they catch up? Data from France implies they probably might, but we'll have to wait for this to play out.

You have it backwards, all the current trends suggest that it is the U.S. which is lagging behind the EU, is at an earlier point of the current wave. The EU will not catch up to the U.S., it'll be the other way round - and the U.S. are already worse off than Europe. Cases in many European countries are already going down again, or at least the curves show a slowdown of the growth rates, while you still see unchecked growth.


Quote (Saucisson6000 @ 13 Nov 2020 12:30)
Lockdown for 3-4 weeks: after 15 days the cases are down by 50% and "recovery" (low cases, and low deaths...) appears/confirms at 30.
15 days more lockdown days for France: 1st december. But there will still be many restrictions (because its winter, read below)

In Germany they did not start a strong lockdown and their cases are UP... Italy has same problem, they got people getting oxygen in their car.
Seems there's no secret: Lockdown followed by a rest, a limited lockdown (typically this is where you can evaluate how disciplined is the population) of xx days: more in a summer, and probably much less in winter.

The growth rate is already decreasing in Germany/Italy, our current reproduction number R_t is below zero. Also note that the current wave hit Germany and Italy 1-2 weeks later than France/the UK. All in all, it seems as if we can handle it with the current, much softer lockdowns and dont need to go ham like the French government ("need permit to leave your home" and shit like that).

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 13 2020 06:37am
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