Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 31 2020 03:55pm)
I really dont think that Trump will lose Florida. It's the one state where Republicans have consistently overperformed their polls in recent years, even in 2018. It is one of the best cultural fits for Trumpism. Cubans and Venezuelans are coming home to Trump/the GOP. The gotv machine of the GOP has consistently outhustled their Democratic counterpart. Polls have been trending quite well for Trump there. And covid cases are relatively far down still.
So unless seniors break with Trump en masse (which would imply that he loses the overall election in a landslide), I really dont see him losing FL. I wouldnt be surprised at all if NC, GA or even AZ end up to the left of FL this time around.
I think the senior vote will decide Florida. The younger vote has been up significantly in mail-in and early voting in FL, and simply based on party registration, registered Democrats hold a slim lead in total early votes (this obviously doesn't guarantee who those votes were cast for, just the party registration). We do know that seniors' support for Trump has been trending downward, as COVID response is a very key factor for that demographic. How that will play out through Tuesday night is anyone's guess, though.
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