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Oct 31 2020 02:07pm
Quote (Thor123422 @ Oct 31 2020 04:04pm)
Anybody got any thoughts on the Trump campaign fighting legal battles to get votes thrown out?

In Pennsylvania they've gotten the courts to rule on very specific circumstances for accepting ballots including "secret envelopes".

Similarly they're trying to argue that even if ballots are postmarked by election day they shouldn't be counted if they are received after Nov 3. Any court that agrees with this, especially after the postmaster's shenanigans that were obviously meant to delay ballots, will lose my respect as an authority and should lose everybody else's as well.

How the supreme court and state courts rule on these issues can substantially affect our democracy going forward. We may be in for a rough ride on the election results and as a country depending on how it goes.

I'm leaning towards moving to Canada regardless of results honestly. The fact that we've gotten to this point may indicate that we're screwed regardless of results, since the cracks in the system are laid bare. Caesar didn't destroy the Republic by marching over the Rubicon. He destroyed it by exploiting the cracks years before that.


If nothing else, the campaign cycle in Canada (and most places for that matter not named USA) is only like 2 months long. Unlike our 2 years of propaganda election cycle. Lots more peace of mind.

I do find it strange how many people on the right are just totally down with this obscene level of vote fuckery though.
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Oct 31 2020 02:09pm
Quote (Thor123422 @ Oct 31 2020 03:04pm)
Anybody got any thoughts on the Trump campaign fighting legal battles to get votes thrown out?

In Pennsylvania they've gotten the courts to rule on very specific circumstances for accepting ballots including "secret envelopes".

Similarly they're trying to argue that even if ballots are postmarked by election day they shouldn't be counted if they are received after Nov 3. Any court that agrees with this, especially after the postmaster's shenanigans that were obviously meant to delay ballots, will lose my respect as an authority and should lose everybody else's as well.

How the supreme court and state courts rule on these issues can substantially affect our democracy going forward. We may be in for a rough ride on the election results and as a country depending on how it goes.

I'm leaning towards moving to Canada regardless of results honestly. The fact that we've gotten to this point may indicate that we're screwed regardless of results, since the cracks in the system are laid bare. Caesar didn't destroy the Republic by marching over the Rubicon. He destroyed it by exploiting the cracks years before that.


It's certainly not been a "same across the board" result, as far as rulings go. The 8th Circuit ruled that MN votes postmarked on or before election day, but received after 8:00 PM on election day, have to be separated out, pending any final appeal on the validity of those ballots. SCOTUS, OTOH, just ruled that NC and PA will be able to accept and count ballots similarly received. Will have to see if there's an appeal in the MN case to SCOTUS or not.
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Oct 31 2020 02:14pm
Quote (Thor123422 @ 31 Oct 2020 21:04)
Anybody got any thoughts on the Trump campaign fighting legal battles to get votes thrown out?

In Pennsylvania they've gotten the courts to rule on very specific circumstances for accepting ballots including "secret envelopes".

Similarly they're trying to argue that even if ballots are postmarked by election day they shouldn't be counted if they are received after Nov 3. Any court that agrees with this, especially after the postmaster's shenanigans that were obviously meant to delay ballots, will lose my respect as an authority and should lose everybody else's as well.

How the supreme court and state courts rule on these issues can substantially affect our democracy going forward. We may be in for a rough ride on the election results and as a country depending on how it goes.

I'm leaning towards moving to Canada regardless of results honestly. The fact that we've gotten to this point may indicate that we're screwed regardless of results, since the cracks in the system are laid bare. Caesar didn't destroy the Republic by marching over the Rubicon. He destroyed it by exploiting the cracks years before that.


It's really not hard to see what the Trump campaign was trying to do: create an environment where there is a huge partisan split in terms of voting by mail, and then hope that a lot of the Democratic-leaning mail votes are thrown out for various reasons.

Regarding the deadline for receiving ballots on election day itself: Republicans are kinda traumatized by two decades of tight elections being swung after election day by Democratic-leaning late-arriving ballots. For example, in the 2018 AZ senate race, McSally was leading on election day, but then lost to Sinema once the late ballots arrived. They also lost several CA house seats the same way. Ballot harvesting also plays into this. The deeper reason why late-arriving ballots almost always favored Dems in recent times is that of college kids and other young people are disproportionately procrastinating and sending their mail ballots very late.
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Oct 31 2020 02:23pm
Quote (Thor123422 @ Oct 31 2020 01:04pm)
Anybody got any thoughts on the Trump campaign fighting legal battles to get votes thrown out?

In Pennsylvania they've gotten the courts to rule on very specific circumstances for accepting ballots including "secret envelopes".

Similarly they're trying to argue that even if ballots are postmarked by election day they shouldn't be counted if they are received after Nov 3. Any court that agrees with this, especially after the postmaster's shenanigans that were obviously meant to delay ballots, will lose my respect as an authority and should lose everybody else's as well.

How the supreme court and state courts rule on these issues can substantially affect our democracy going forward. We may be in for a rough ride on the election results and as a country depending on how it goes.

I'm leaning towards moving to Canada regardless of results honestly. The fact that we've gotten to this point may indicate that we're screwed regardless of results, since the cracks in the system are laid bare. Caesar didn't destroy the Republic by marching over the Rubicon. He destroyed it by exploiting the cracks years before that.


It's kind of a mess, honestly. The Supreme Court has essentially taken the position that if a state court makes a decision that changes election law then they're more likely to let it go, but that if they're largely opposed to changes made by lower federal courts.
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Oct 31 2020 02:44pm
Here's a 538 map of what the outcome would look like if polling this year was off by as much as it was in 2016 (with FL, GA, and PA all being <1% margin):



https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322602104226283520

This post was edited by Surfpunk on Oct 31 2020 02:45pm
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Oct 31 2020 02:49pm
https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1322602843661021184?s=20

Trying to throw out votes in Texas that were cast curb side
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Oct 31 2020 02:54pm
can't wait for cenk meltdown 2020

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Oct 31 2020 02:55pm
Quote (Surfpunk @ 31 Oct 2020 21:44)
Here's a 538 map of what the outcome would look like if polling this year was off by as much as it was in 2016 (with FL, GA, and PA all being <1% margin):

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ElrTXR9XYAYN0SU.jpg

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322602104226283520


I really dont think that Trump will lose Florida. It's the one state where Republicans have consistently overperformed their polls in recent years, even in 2018. It is one of the best cultural fits for Trumpism. Cubans and Venezuelans are coming home to Trump/the GOP. The gotv machine of the GOP has consistently outhustled their Democratic counterpart. Polls have been trending quite well for Trump there. And covid cases are relatively far down still.

So unless seniors break with Trump en masse (which would imply that he loses the overall election in a landslide), I really dont see him losing FL. I wouldnt be surprised at all if NC, GA or even AZ end up to the left of FL this time around.
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Oct 31 2020 03:01pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 31 2020 04:55pm)
I really dont think that Trump will lose Florida. It's the one state where Republicans have consistently overperformed their polls in recent years, even in 2018. It is one of the best cultural fits for Trumpism. Cubans and Venezuelans are coming home to Trump/the GOP. The gotv machine of the GOP has consistently outhustled their Democratic counterpart. Polls have been trending quite well for Trump there. And covid cases are relatively far down still.

So unless seniors break with Trump en masse (which would imply that he loses the overall election in a landslide), I really dont see him losing FL. I wouldnt be surprised at all if NC, GA or even AZ end up to the left of FL this time around.


Checking in from high population red Florida. Turnout numbers are pretty nuts, and no one around here that are sub age 30 are anti trump.

This post was edited by Mangix on Oct 31 2020 03:02pm
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Oct 31 2020 03:06pm



Lmfao
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