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Poll > Trump 2020 > Trump Vs. Pack O' Dems
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Oct 30 2020 06:48pm
Quote (Handcuffs @ 31 Oct 2020 01:31)
Honestly, same. The fucking Electoral College is bullshit.


It was a necessary concession from the big states to the small states, to get them to ratify the constiution.
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Oct 30 2020 06:48pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 30 2020 05:48pm)
It was a necessary concession from the big states to the small states, to get them to ratify the constiution.


It currently exists as an outdated, undemocratic relic.
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Oct 30 2020 07:05pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 31 Oct 2020 01:48)
It was a necessary concession from the big states to the small states, to get them to ratify the constiution.


that's one way of putting it...

https://time.com/4558510/electoral-college-history-slavery/
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Oct 30 2020 07:09pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 30 2020 05:48pm)
It was a necessary concession from the big states to the small states, to get them to ratify the constiution.


America almost got rid of it in the 60s/70s but Southerners were worried that blacks would be represented in the popular vote. They wanted to keep the winner take all systems in the South to disenfranchise blacks.
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Oct 31 2020 06:00am
https://www.dailywire.com/news/klavan-voting-for-trump-with-joy

Quote
I voted for Donald Trump in 2016 with a shrug of tragic resignation. I thought a battle between him and Hillary was like one of those old Japanese monster movies—“Mothra vs Godzilla,” say. You’re sort of rooting for one monster over the other, but either way Tokyo gets destroyed. I figured if this was the end of the republic, better a loud mouth with some practical instincts in the White House than a corrupt jade with no feel for the best traditions of the country.

It turned out I was wrong. Trump was much better than that. He allowed all of his personal flaws—his rudeness, his ignorance, his moral corner-cutting—to be contained within the structures of our constitutional system. His virtues—his fix-it practicality, his contrarian common sense, his visceral love of America—were turned by incident and instinct to the values that preserve our freedom.


He has curtailed the reach of government by cutting regulations and appointing constitutional judges. He has beaten back the globalizing rush of the elites, which would transfer power from the people’s representatives to world organizations without our values. He has refused the panicked calls to abandon federalism and create new bureaucratic structures to handle a pandemic better handled by each state. He has defended the rights to speak, worship, and bear arms. The Left keeps calling him an authoritarian. I do not think that word means what they think it means.

Meanwhile, the Left has become what they accuse everyone else of being. They are tyrants. They are racists. They want to dismantle the systems that protect our liberty. Their cities are awash in homelessness, poverty, crime, and mass violence—and yet they believe so completely that they deserve power, they cannot imagine a scenario in which their defeat is legal and legitimate. Everyone who opposes them is hateful. Every political loss they suffer is a flaw in the system.

What’s more—they behave like trash. It isn’t often you find wisdom on the anti-free speech platform Twitter, but there was some this week. Rabbi David Wolpe—a Democrat, I believe—was talking about how to react to the outcome of the election: “What you believe is judged in part by what your beliefs have made of you.” I know this is wisdom because I’ve said the same thing many times myself. I rest my case.


And look at what the Left’s beliefs have made of them. Their journalists lie and cover up. Their activists are violent. Their women sit in cars and film themselves screaming like banshees. Their men renounce their manhood.


Quote (thundercock @ Oct 30 2020 09:09pm)
America almost got rid of it in the 60s/70s but Southerners were worried that blacks would be represented in the popular vote. They wanted to keep the winner take all systems in the South to disenfranchise blacks.



One person was racist 100 years ago so give all of your power to egotistical tyrants.

This post was edited by EndlessSky on Oct 31 2020 06:02am
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Oct 31 2020 10:14am
Quote (EndlessSky @ Oct 31 2020 05:00am)
https://www.dailywire.com/news/klavan-voting-for-trump-with-joy

One person was racist 100 years ago so give all of your power to egotistical tyrants.


that's not the point or what happened, glad to see you up and on your game again today.

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Oct 31 2020 11:35am
The Gravy Seals are at it again. This shit is getting dangerous.

https://twitter.com/ericcervini/status/1322546782572859395
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Oct 31 2020 12:26pm
So I decided to look into the Trafalgar Group's polling. These guys got 2016 right, and believe there is a significant undercounting of Trump's support in regular polling methods due to people not being comfortable answering questions from strangers (people lie to their own doctors and accountants afterall). So to cut through the "noise," they include a question that says "who do you believe your friends are going to vote for?" Using this, they find more hidden support for the president. I made my own 270 to win map, starting with their base model, and the only changes I made to it, were Trafalgar's polls within the last month in battleground states. This is the result:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/oVdRy

Trump 272 EVs to Biden's 243, with 23 in play.

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Oct 31 2020 01:22pm
Quote (Santara @ Oct 31 2020 01:26pm)
So I decided to look into the Trafalgar Group's polling. These guys got 2016 right, and believe there is a significant undercounting of Trump's support in regular polling methods due to people not being comfortable answering questions from strangers (people lie to their own doctors and accountants afterall). So to cut through the "noise," they include a question that says "who do you believe your friends are going to vote for?" Using this, they find more hidden support for the president. I made my own 270 to win map, starting with their base model, and the only changes I made to it, were Trafalgar's polls within the last month in battleground states. This is the result:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/oVdRy

Trump 272 EVs to Biden's 243, with 23 in play.


https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322301003090268162

Trafalgar also underpolls under-35 voters, and overpolls 45+ white voters. It's skewed methodology. This is a breakdown of a recent poll Trafalgar did in Pennsylvania, and the census breakdown of the PA population.




This post was edited by Surfpunk on Oct 31 2020 01:27pm
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Oct 31 2020 01:47pm
Quote (Santara @ 31 Oct 2020 19:26)
So I decided to look into the Trafalgar Group's polling. These guys got 2016 right, and believe there is a significant undercounting of Trump's support in regular polling methods due to people not being comfortable answering questions from strangers (people lie to their own doctors and accountants afterall). So to cut through the "noise," they include a question that says "who do you believe your friends are going to vote for?" Using this, they find more hidden support for the president. I made my own 270 to win map, starting with their base model, and the only changes I made to it, were Trafalgar's polls within the last month in battleground states. This is the result:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/oVdRy

Trump 272 EVs to Biden's 243, with 23 in play.


The "who are your neighbors voting for"-question is effective at finding shy voters, but it is also very vulnerable to bias. In 2016, liberals were overconfident in their win probability, didnt take Trump's chances seriously, and were shellshocked when he pulled off the "miracle". Therefore, I would strongly assume that a lot of them are paranoid this time around, no matter what the polls are saying. Basically, they are overcompensating for the mistake they made in 2016. Although Biden is ahead in the polls by a larger and more consistent margin than Clinton ever was, with far less undecideds and no Comey letter, they just cannot trust these polls. Another factor why this question might be skewed in Trump's favor is that Trump has particularly loud and visibile supporters. All it takes is one or two Trump "superfans" in a neighborhood to make the rest of its resident feel like the whole neighborhood is 'trumpy'.

I do think that Trump's support is slightly underrated by the polls based on "differential non-response", but that should only be good enough for a 2-ish percent swing in Trump's favor (compared to the polling average), not the 7+% swing that Trafalgar is seeing.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 31 2020 01:50pm
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