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Poll > Trump 2020 > Trump Vs. Pack O' Dems
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#7611
Oct 30 2020 05:21am
Quote (Thor123422 @ Oct 30 2020 04:59am)
I heard something that is obvious now that I think about it.

Trump barely won in 2016. He can't afford to lose 1% of his supporters and still win. Hes lost far more than that in every state possibly even before covid.



Trump can lose by 4% raw votes and still have 80% chance to win.
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#7612
Oct 30 2020 12:11pm
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#7613
Oct 30 2020 05:24pm
Real talk, my money is still on Trump winning and being reelected.
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#7614
Oct 30 2020 05:33pm
Quote (Skinned @ Oct 30 2020 07:24pm)
Real talk, my money is still on Trump winning and being reelected.


I don't believe you.

1k:1k fg bet right now. Do it coward.
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#7615
Oct 30 2020 05:37pm
This post is a violation of the site rules and appropriate action was taken.

Quote (Skinned @ Oct 30 2020 04:24pm)
Real talk, my money is still on Trump winning and being reelected.


It would make sense that you're that stupid you rust belt white trash fucking heroin addict.
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#7616
Oct 30 2020 05:39pm
Quote (IceMage @ Oct 30 2020 07:33pm)
I don't believe you.

1k:1k fg bet right now. Do it coward.


Considering this.

Quote (thundercock @ Oct 30 2020 07:37pm)
It would make sense that you're that stupid you rust belt white trash fucking heroin addict.


Lmao


Quote (EndlessSky @ Oct 30 2020 07:21am)
Trump can lose by 4% raw votes and still have 80% chance to win.


Biden needs to hit 55% popular vote to have 80% chance to win, per Nate Silver.

51-53% popular vote has poorer chance to win.

This post was edited by Skinned on Oct 30 2020 05:42pm
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#7617
Oct 30 2020 06:07pm
Quote (Skinned @ 31 Oct 2020 00:39)

Biden needs to hit 55% popular vote to have 80% chance to win, per Nate Silver.

51-53% popular vote has poorer chance to win.

No, you misunderstand Nate Silver there. He needs to hit a 4% margin to have an 80% chance to win. If Biden hits 55% of the popular vote, his margin is guaranteed to be at least 10%. To guarantee a 4% margin (or better), Biden only needs 52% of the popular vote.
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#7618
Oct 30 2020 06:09pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 30 2020 08:07pm)
No, you misunderstand Nate Silver there. He needs to hit a 4% margin to have an 80% chance to win. If Biden hits 55% of the popular vote, his margin is guaranteed to be at least 10%. To guarantee a 4% margin (or better), Biden only needs 52% of the popular vote.


53% to seal the deal is still pretty rough. Depends on the weather Tuesday.

I don't know anybody excited about Joe Biden.

This post was edited by Skinned on Oct 30 2020 06:09pm
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#7619
Oct 30 2020 06:14pm
Quote (Skinned @ 31 Oct 2020 01:09)
53% to seal the deal is still pretty rough. Depends on the weather Tuesday.


Some votes will also go to Jorgensen and Hawkins. If Biden hits 52%, Trump will at most get to 47%.
Pennsylvania, the most likely tipping point state, currently leans 3.7% to the right of the nation, according to fivethirtyeight.

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#7620
Oct 30 2020 06:31pm
Quote (Skinned @ Oct 30 2020 04:24pm)
Real talk, my money is still on Trump winning and being reelected.


Honestly, same. The fucking Electoral College is bullshit.
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