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Nov 10 2020 02:43pm
Btw US are not counting nursing homes and shit. Thus there's a money factor where they will not miss one in hospital.
Dj and Santar => Joe Prez will put a big mask on your mouths, to protects others.
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It's insane we got some much deads so violently, lockdown occured in time (Macron is listening to experts & their models) to avoid hospital capacity overrun*, people who love economy with some smell of a culling ideology should be happy.
And like bazi said, there's a delay for US, with more than serious worries of a bloodbath, i means, once again bazi was talking about it a page ago: capacity overflow* is THE thing to avoid.

*barrier language or language barrier ?
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Nov 10 2020 02:44pm
Quote (Thor123422 @ Nov 10 2020 02:29pm)
Basically, France handled it way better than us until October when everybody started exploding from the cold weather.


Only in the summer/fall. Their spring was worse, and their winter is on pace to be worse.
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Nov 10 2020 03:55pm
Quote (Santara @ Nov 10 2020 09:44pm)
Only in the summer/fall. Their spring was worse, and their winter is on pace to be worse.


I'm not giving you the spring with your graph, especially compensating for #tests done/positive.

The winter will depend.. France has hammered the curve, it's already going down fast.

How will the US apply measures to lower R<1 for this wave?

This post was edited by Knoppie on Nov 10 2020 03:57pm
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Nov 10 2020 04:41pm
Quote (Knoppie @ Nov 10 2020 03:55pm)
I'm not giving you the spring with your graph, especially compensating for #tests done/positive.

The winter will depend.. France has hammered the curve, it's already going down fast.

How will the US apply measures to lower R<1 for this wave?


In the spring, there was a decided lack of testing capabilities, so I'm going off 7-day average deaths per million. That link has variable metrics for viewing comparisons between countries.
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Nov 10 2020 04:48pm
Quote (Santara @ 10 Nov 2020 21:44)
Only in the summer/fall. Their spring was worse, and their winter is on pace to be worse.


To be fair, covid only started spreading in large parts of the Southern US when they already had warm, sunny weather. As we have learned from the ferocity of the current wave in both Europe and North America, the seasonal effect is larger than initially thought, so the Sun Belt might just have gotten lucky.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 10 2020 04:48pm
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Nov 10 2020 04:55pm
Quote (Saucisson6000 @ Nov 10 2020 09:43pm)
Btw US are not counting nursing homes and shit.


Quote (Santara @ Nov 10 2020 11:41pm)
In the spring, there was a decided lack of testing capabilities, so I'm going off 7-day average deaths per million. That link has variable metrics for viewing comparisons between countries.


Can that correlate to fewer confirmed corona deaths in nursing homes and lack of tests in the US back then?
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Nov 10 2020 05:05pm
Quote (Santara @ Nov 10 2020 01:37pm)
7 day moving average smooths out reporting delays.

For yesterday, the average for France is 48,720 cases and 117,043 for the USA. Given the population disparity, we're currently doing far better, and our upswings started at the same time.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&country=FRA~USA&region=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc



Check the log tho

I think we are still several weeks away from drawing conclusions

France is relatively shutdown right now iirc? The majority of America is open business as usual with half the country still maskless thinking it’s all fake
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Nov 10 2020 05:07pm
Quote (Bazi @ Nov 11 2020 12:05am)
Check the log tho

I think we are still several weeks away from drawing conclusions

France is relatively shutdown right now iirc? The majority of America is open business as usual with half the country still maskless thinking it’s all fake


/e Yes France is in a form of lockdown, for about 2 weeks now, The Netherlands and many other countries in the EU are as well. Shutdowns/new regulation, take ~1-2 weeks to have an effect on new infections.. hospitalizations come later

This post was edited by Knoppie on Nov 10 2020 05:20pm
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Nov 10 2020 05:11pm
Quote (Knoppie @ 10 Nov 2020 23:55)
Can that correlate to fewer confirmed corona deaths in nursing homes and lack of tests in the US back then?


their counting seems bogus:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/more-2-200-coronavirus-deaths-nursing-homes-federal-government-isn-n1181026

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/government-counts-26-000-covid-19-deaths-nursing-homes-s-n1221496

and now ...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nursing-home-covid-19-cases-rise-four-fold-in-surge-states/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e

Seems US are : "back off to better blow up" (french proverb): it's slow but it will be, probably, very, very big.
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Nov 10 2020 06:07pm
Quote (Knoppie @ Nov 10 2020 04:55pm)
Can that correlate to fewer confirmed corona deaths in nursing homes and lack of tests in the US back then?


If we take Sausage's later NBC link (post 7609) at face value, that early US nursing home deaths understate our deaths by 40%, then our peak death rate per million moves up from 8.2 to 11.5, still far short of the 16.9 experienced in the spring in France.

Quote (Bazi @ Nov 10 2020 05:05pm)
Check the log tho

I think we are still several weeks away from drawing conclusions

France is relatively shutdown right now iirc? The majority of America is open business as usual with half the country still maskless thinking it’s all fake


There is a total hodgepodge of responses throughout the US. For an example, 2/3 of US states have mask mandates, my own here in MN has been in effect since July 25. In general, low population states account for most of the mandate-free states, except for Florida. We've been under some varied versions of lockdowns since the spring.
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