dunno but there still lots of trump energy out there

lots of anti trump energy too

biden energy is .... appropriate considering

Literally everything about corruption that Trump criticized, he has done.

He did a tax cut that massively benefited the rich and that expire for everybody but the rich.
He hasn't reformed any of the systems to work better for the American people.
He's gotten hundreds of millions of dollars of business deals for his family and funneled money to his resorts using his position.
He effectively traded an arms deal in Saudi Arabia for them staying at his hotels and funneling money to his businesses

He could run on anti-corruption if he wanted to, but he would get absolutely fucking shredded in the comparison to any modern president and virtually any modern politician.
He can't run on the economy because the only thing that differentiated his economy from the one before it is the stock market, which the average American has virtually no stake in.

Comparing the 2016 campaign to the 2020 campaign it's really obvious why he's losing as bad as he is. He ran on a message, and then took a giant dump on that message at every turn. He actively made no attempt to follow through and in most ways actively subverted it with his actions.

Biden crowd size...

Fake news dies in darkness.

remove the ad signs and video title, and anyone watching this video would be like "What the fuck is even happening here"

Sears parking lot post bankruptcy level crowd sizes

SAD!

almost looks like they found covid patient zero and he's an ET

Yup, his campaign has lost most of its mojo. Even conservative journalists noticed it:

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/the-missing-populist/

(Open in a private window to circumvent the paywall.)




I still think, however, that covid is Trump's main problem. Biden is not a particularly strong candidate, and with a strong economy and few actual crises, this campaign from Trump, coupled with his edge in the EC, would imho have been enough to win a comfortable win.

Imho, Trump's jump the shark moment, the moment that lost him this election, was the bleach comment. That was the moment where the ~15% of the electorate which lean toward Trump but aren't irredeemable cultists realized that he has no fucking idea what he's talking about or doing on the most pressing issue of the day.

I heard something that is obvious now that I think about it.

Trump barely won in 2016. He can't afford to lose 1% of his supporters and still win. Hes lost far more than that in every state possibly even before covid.

It is what it is

That's based on uniform swing theory, and on the premise that there were no voters who wanted to go with Trump in 2016, but just barely couldnt bring themselves to do it. For example among religious voters who had reservations about him, but now support him after he "delivered" big time for their interests. Also note that even in spite of the covid debacle, Trump has made some inroads with black and latino voters - which would offset at least some erosion among white women.




Think about it this way: in 2016, only Florida and the "blue wall states" of MI/WI/PA went for Trump by a margin of less than 3.5%, while losing the popular vote by 2.1%.

Regarding Florida: Trump underperformed with traditionally Republican-leaning Cubans in 2016 and still won the state. In 2020, lots of Cubans (and also Colombians and Venezuelans) are coming home. Trump is a good cultural fit for the rest of the GOP electorate in the state, without covid, there shouldnt have been much erosion. Even with covid, I still expect Cubans to bail Trump out in Florida. Without it, Florida would imho have been an easy hold for him.


Regarding the blue wall states: the same trends which existed in 2016 continued throughout Trump's presidency: non-college whites trending toward the GOP, college whites and women trending toward Dems. In MI/WI/PA, this is an advantageous tradeoff for Trump. The baseline trends in these states move them increasingly to the right of the national average. With a booming economy, no major crises, the Dems moving in an ever more 'woke' direction, and Trump making these voters feel understood and accepted, I dont think that there would have been much erosion for Trump among his base.

On the contrary, I think that he would have increased his margins with non-college whites even further after bombarding voters with "RECORD LOW UNEMPLOYMENT, RISING WAGES" and "promises made, promises kept".



So the way I see it, base turnout for Trump would have been skyhigh, the PVI of the decisive states like PA and FL would have shifted from R+(2.8 -3.3) in 2016 to R+(4-5) in 2020, and Biden would have had a hard time finding arguments against Trump other than "corruption, Russia, impeachment, unpresidential, decorum, unreliable". Would any of this have stuck against an incumbent presiding over a booming economy with record low unemployment, no wars and tons of judicial appointments? I doubt it. Also note that without covid, the lack of enthusiasm for Biden, the absence of anything inspiring about him or his platform, as well as his gaffe-proneness would all have been on full display throughout the campaign. I just dont think that Biden had it in him to knock Trump out under circumstances which are that favorable to the incumbent.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 30 2020 03:51am