Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 9 2020 09:40am)
Was there any chance a vaccine could solve our troubles with this winter? At the earliest, it would take until some point in December to get FDA approval, then it would take another 1-2 months at the minimum to produce and distribute the vaccine in relevant quantities, and then another couple of months until there is enough vaccine-induced herd immunity that covid restrictions could safely be dropped.
The best possible scenario was probably to get ~10-15% of the population vaccinated before the end-of-winter wave hits in late February/early March, but the timeline for that was always daunting.
It would still be a huge relief for the world if we could get back to relatively normal by, say, June. And it's great for the morale of the people if there's a clear timeline for when this shit will be over.
I don’t understand your question, was there any chance THIS winter could have been assisted with vaccine? I am in dark just like you and found out about vaccine on CNBC. No idea in regards to how early it can be rushed and FDA timeline tbh. I just know things happen slowly, especially in US, and we are at this second in time being slaughtered by this current wave. I don’t see any mechanism where this vaccine helps us now. I think will mitigate future outbreaks/waves like spring/summer and next winter. We will have to see how many people are hit by this wave, and therefore however many people are left to vaccinate. Keeping in mind this virus will likely mutate are some form, however every mutation being less harmful. Definitely light at the end of the tunnel. Average INfectious diseases doc consensus was ~70% effectiveness and ~90% is a testimony to how smart some humans are (not me) and what we can do when we put our minds to a task
This really is a crushing blow to the inevitable herd immunity argument as well. If we (the world minus East Asia) were disciplined for just a bit longer, several months even, it would have been the difference in tens of thousands of lives. It makes the loss of life seem like a waste honestly
Pass a stimulus bill right now, and give the world hope of a timeline now you have this result. I think society can adhere better to guidelines when there is an end date. Have the world suck it up for a little while longer and give them financial relief so they don’t have livelihoods to worry about... and let’s try get back to the lives as we know it as vaccinations are rolled out